Excursionistas vs Deportivo Laferrere Predictions, Lineups & Betting Tips Predictions

Excursionistas vs Deportivo Laferrere Predictions, Lineups & Betting Tips

Match Date: Tuesday, 21 October 2025 Kick-off: 01:00 GMT Competition: Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

Match Overview

Excursionistas welcome Deportivo Laferrere in a tightly poised Primera B Metropolitana encounter that’s expected to be more tactical than open. Football Park’s algorithm gives the home side a slight edge with a 33.3% win probability, though the 40% chance of a draw highlights the likelihood of a cautious, low-scoring affair.

Both sides average under 1.5 expected goals per game, suggesting that goalmouth action could be limited. Excursionistas have been solid at home — unbeaten in their last four — while Laferrere’s away form remains inconsistent, especially against teams who control possession well.

With 2.3 total expected goals and a predicted correct score of 0-0, this fixture leans towards a cagey and defensive contest.

Football Park Algorithm Predictions

Our advanced prediction model combines xG data, passing metrics, and defensive transition analysis to generate accurate outcome probabilities:

Home Win Probability: 33.30%

Away Win Probability: 26.70%

Draw Probability: 40.00%

Both Teams to Score Probability: 46.70%

Expected Match Goals: 2.30

The balanced probabilities and modest goal expectations signal a tense, evenly contested fixture where a single moment could decide the outcome.

Key Betting Tips

1. Excursionistas to Win @ 2.20

Excursionistas have shown steady improvement at home, with three wins from their last five matches at Estadio de Excursionistas. They’ve also historically performed well in this fixture, beating Deportivo Laferrere 4-0 in their last meeting.

Given the home side’s higher xG (1.3) and better defensive metrics, backing Excursionistas for a narrow win holds strong value. Recommended Bet: Excursionistas to Win @ 2.20

2. Under 2.5 Match Goals @ 2.38

Football Park’s data projects only 2.3 expected total goals, while both teams have gone Under 2.5 Goals in four of their last six combined fixtures.

Neither side has been clinical in front of goal this season, and with a 46.7% BTTS probability, a low-scoring game seems likely. Recommended Bet: Under 2.5 Match Goals @ 2.38

Head-to-Head Timeline – Excursionistas vs Deportivo Laferrere Matches

20 Sep 2024: Excursionistas 4-0 Deportivo Laferrere

25 Apr 2023: Excursionistas 0-0 Deportivo Laferrere

21 Oct 2022: Excursionistas 1-2 Deportivo Laferrere

26 Aug 2022: Excursionistas 0-1 Deportivo Laferrere

27 Jun 2021: Excursionistas 2-3 Deportivo Laferrere

Excursionistas’ 4-0 home victory in 2024 broke a run of poor results against Laferrere and demonstrated their attacking potential when confidence is high. Historically, though, this fixture has often been tight — with five of the last seven meetings finishing with two goals or fewer.

Statistical Breakdown – Excursionistas vs Deportivo Laferrere Predictions

Over 0.5 Match Goals: 75% probability

Over 1.5 Match Goals: 50% probability

Over 2.5 Match Goals: 40% probability

Both Teams to Score: 46.7% probability

Over 0.5 First Half Goals: 53% probability

Half-Time Draw Probability: 46.7%

With fewer than one expected goal per team, the data underlines a pattern of low-tempo play and conservative first-half tactics.

Betting Outlook

This matchup is expected to be decided by fine margins. Excursionistas’ home form gives them a narrow edge, but the underlying numbers point toward a low-scoring game, likely featuring limited attacking quality from both sides.

Predicted outcome: Excursionistas 1-0 Deportivo Laferrere Most valuable markets: Excursionistas to Win and Under 2.5 Match Goals.

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