Kilmarnock vs St Mirren Prediction and Betting Tips Predictions

Kilmarnock vs St Mirren Predictions, Lineups & Betting Tips

Kilmarnock face St Mirren at Rugby Park on 19 September 2025, with kick-off set for 19:45 GMT in this Scottish League Cup quarter-final clash between two well-matched sides. Football Park’s advanced algorithm projects a highly competitive contest, with a 46.7% probability of a draw suggesting this could go the distance.

This preview is powered by Football Park’s proprietary prediction model, which evaluates over 200 performance metrics to produce data-led forecasts. With 2.70 expected match goals and a 63.3% chance of both teams scoring, this looks set to be an entertaining tie with plenty of attacking action.

Our betting experts have also identified two high-value selections that offer strong potential based on the latest statistical projections.

Kilmarnock vs St Mirren Timeline

Examining the Kilmarnock vs St Mirren matches over the past decade underlines just how frequently this fixture produces tight, dramatic encounters:

• 02 Jan 2025 – Kilmarnock 2-0 St Mirren
• 16 Mar 2024 – Kilmarnock 5-2 St Mirren
• 30 Sep 2023 – Kilmarnock 1-1 St Mirren
• 02 Jan 2023 – Kilmarnock 0-0 St Mirren
• 12 May 2021 – Kilmarnock 3-3 St Mirren
• 02 Jan 2021 – Kilmarnock 1-1 St Mirren
• 26 Oct 2019 – Kilmarnock 1-0 St Mirren
• 29 Dec 2018 – Kilmarnock 2-1 St Mirren
• 14 Mar 2015 – Kilmarnock 1-0 St Mirren

-13 Sep 2014 – Kilmarnock 2-1 St Mirren

Kilmarnock are unbeaten in their last seven home meetings with St Mirren, and most of those fixtures have produced goals at both ends. This trend supports our model’s expectation of an open, attacking game.

Kilmarnock vs St Mirren Predictions

Football Park’s predictive model signals a balanced, goal-rich contest:

Home Win Probability: 33.3%

Draw Probability: 46.7%

Away Win Probability: 20.0%

Most Likely Correct Score: 2-2

Both Teams to Score Probability: 63.3%

Expected Match Goals: 2.70

Expected First Half Goals: 0.93

Over 1.5 Match Goals Probability: 75%

Over 2.5 Match Goals Probability: 60%

Half-Time Result Projection: 60% Draw probability

The model’s 46.7% draw likelihood is notably high for a knockout tie, while the data around BTTS and over goals markets suggests attacking exchanges from both sides.

Best Kilmarnock vs St Mirren Betting Tips

Football Park’s team of tipsters have identified two high-confidence bets that align strongly with our algorithmic predictions:

Best Bet 1: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Backed by a 60% probability, this market offers standout value given the high expected goal total and recent history of high-scoring clashes between the two sides.

Best Bet 2: Both Teams to Score @ 1.80 With 63.3% probability from our model, BTTS looks a strong selection. Both teams have scored in four of their last five meetings, underlining this bet’s potential.

These bets provide the strongest combination of data-driven value and realistic outcomes, rather than relying on an outright result in what should be a close encounter.

Kilmarnock vs St Mirren Match Facts

Match Odds: Kilmarnock 2.38 | Draw 3.40 | St Mirren 2.88

Most Likely Scoreline: 2-2

Both Teams to Score Probability: 63.3%

Over 1.5 Match Goals Probability: 75%

Over 0.5 First Half Goals Probability: 53%

Broadcast Details:

UK: Premier Sports

Europe: DAZN (selected territories)

Global: Viaplay (selected regions)

Venue Insight: Rugby Park’s synthetic pitch encourages quick, technical football which often results in more open and attacking matches, further strengthening the case for goals-based markets.

Conclusion – Kilmarnock vs St Mirren Predictions

Football Park’s algorithm expects a fiercely contested Scottish League Cup quarter-final, with a draw the most likely outcome but goals on both sides highly probable. With 2.70 expected match goals and the historical head-to-head data backing this outlook, goals-based markets represent the clearest value for bettors.

Recommended Bets:

Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95

Both Teams to Score @ 1.80

As always, remember to bet responsibly and only stake what you can afford to lose. For more guidance, visit Football Park’s expert analysis on BTTS betting strategies and over/under goal markets.

Football Park Predictions

Football Park provides bettors with a range of different football betting predictions across Europe, the EFL and Non-League football.