Home Win
Falkirk 3 - 2 Rangers
Who will win?
1
Falkirk
x
Draw
2
Rangers
Falkirk host Rangers at the Falkirk Stadium on Sunday, 5 October 2025 (15:00 GMT) in the Scottish Premiership. The model gives Falkirk a 46.7% chance of victory against Rangers’ 26.7%, with a high-scoring contest expected (3.5 projected match goals). Both teams to score is strongly favoured (80% probability), with the most likely correct score 3-2 to Falkirk – highlighting real upset potential.
Date: 5 October 2025
Kick-Off: 15:00 GMT
Competition: Scotland Premiership
Venue: Falkirk Stadium, capacity 8,750
Referee: TBC
UK: Sky Sports Football / Sky Go
International: ESPN+, Viaplay, Rangers TV
Home Win Probability: 46.7%
Away Win Probability: 26.7%
Draw Probability: 26.7%
Correct Score Prediction: 3-2
Both Teams to Score Probability: 80.0%
Over 2.5 Goals Probability: 85.0%
Half-Time/Full-Time Projection: Draw/Home
Falkirk Double Chance (Win or Draw) @ 2.05 – Excellent value given Falkirk’s higher win probability than the market implies.
Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS @ 1.95 – With 3.5 expected match goals and an 80% BTTS probability, a goal-fest is anticipated.
Expected Match Goals: 3.50
Over 0.5 Goals Probability: 100%
Over 1.5 Goals Probability: 100%
Over 2.5 Goals Probability: 85%
Over 3.5 Goals Probability: 55%
First Half Goals Projection: 1.73 (87% chance of at least one first-half goal, 53% chance of 2+)
Best Bet 1: Falkirk Double Chance (Win or Draw) @ 2.05
Best Bet 2: Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS @ 1.95
While Rangers are favourites with the bookies, the underlying data points towards Falkirk being undervalued. High scoring games have defined this fixture historically, and a 3-2 upset fits both model projections and betting value.
29 Nov 2020 – Falkirk 0-4 Rangers
18 Mar 2016 – Falkirk 3-2 Rangers
19 Dec 2015 – Falkirk 2-1 Rangers
27 Feb 2015 – Falkirk 1-1 Rangers
15 Aug 2014 – Falkirk 0-2 Rangers
Falkirk have shown in the past they can trouble Rangers – with two wins and one draw across their last five meetings.
At Football Park, we identify where the numbers show value, but no bet is risk-free. Always gamble responsibly and within your means.
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