Lazio vs Fiorentina Predictions, Lineups & Betting Tips

Lazio vs Fiorentina Predictions, Lineups & Betting Tips

Match Details: January 7, 2026 | Stadio Olimpico | Serie A | 19:45 GMT

Two sides who are underperforming by their own standards this season, one significantly more than the other, face off in a Serie A clash, the top flight of Italian football. The hosts, Lazio, aren't quite at the level they'd like to be at the moment, with their recent results telling the story of a slightly disappointing campaign so far, but that is nothing compared to the visitors. Fiorentina are a side that have established themselves as a competitive upper-mid-table side, but have been festering in the relegation zone all season, with this game providing them with an opportunity to finally drag themselves out of the bottom three, but it'll take quite an effort to do so.

Key Betting Tips: Lazio to Win @ 2.25 odds on both BoyleSPORTS or 2.20 on talkSPORT BET represent good value based on the tip provided by Football Park's advanced algorithm.

Fiorentina's woeful season has been well documented so, despite their shortcomings this so far in this campaign, Lazio are likely to run out as the winners in this game.

Lazio vs Fiorentina Predicted Lineups

Lazio Predicted XI (4-3-3): Ivan Provedel; Luca Pellegrini, Alessio Romagnoli, Mario Gila Fuentes, Manuel Lazzari; Toma Bašić, Danilo Cataldi, Mattéo Guendouzi; Mattia Zaccagni, Pedro, Gustav Isaksen

Boulaye Dia and Fisayo Dele-Bashiri will both be unavailable as they continue their international duties at AFCON with Senegal and Nigeria, while both Adam Marušić and Tijjani Noslin will sit out to serve their suspensions. The only injury to Lazio is to Samuel Gigot, who continues to recover from his long term injury.

Fiorentina Predicted XI (4-2-3-1): David De Gea; Luca Ranieri, Marin Pongračić, Pietro Comuzzo, Dodô; Nicolò Fagioli, Rolando Mandragora; Albert Guðmundsson, Cher Ndour, Fabiano Parisi; Moise Kean

While Fiorentina don't have any confirmed absentees, there are three players whose fitness are in doubt for this fixture, and will thus be subject to late tests. Those players are Tariq Lamptey, Edin Džeko and Jacopo Fazzini.

Lazio vs Fiorentina Current League Standings

The hosts find themselves at the upper end of the mid-table battle in ninth, which is a pretty underwhelming position to hold by their high standards. The last time they finished lower than eigth was in the 2013/14 season, so Maurizio Sarri's side need to start finding results soon to prevent this season from being a disappointment. Lazio seem to struggle to translate draws into wins, a problem that has become especially prevalent in recent weeks, which means their results tally heading into this fixture is six wins, six draws and six defeats - as mid-table as it gets. Despite all this, they hold one of the best defensive records in Serie A, conceding just 14 times in 18 games, a record beaten by only four sides.

From a Fiorentina perspective, the less said about this season so far, the better. For a side who have finished between sixth and eighth in each of their last four seasons, to have only just scraped themselves off of bottom with their last result is a complete embarrassment, especially when you consider how strong their side still is on paper. They had to wait until December 21 for their first league win, with their record heading into this tie now sitting at two wins, six draws and ten losses. Unsurprisingly based on their league position, they have one of the worst defensive records in the league, conceding twice as many as Lazio.

Lazio vs Fiorentina Head-to-Head Timeline

Recent encounters between the two sides show us that Fiorentina have been stronger than Lazio, winning each of the last three games against le Aquile, all of which were at a scoreline of 2-1. Lazio have only managed one win against Fiorentina in their last five, with one match ending on level terms. Before la Viola put together three wins in a row, Lazio had gone five games unbeaten against them, but the pendulum appears to have swung the other way recently.

Historically, despite Fiorentina's recent upturn in scorelines, it is Lazio who have had the better results, and by a pretty substantial margin too. They've taken 19 victories against Fiorentina, who in turn have only registered eight wins of their own, with a further four encounters ending even, spelling dominance for the hosts of this game.

Recent Head-to-Head Results:

• January 26, 2025: Lazio 1-2 Fiorentina (Serie A)
• September 22, 2024: Fiorentina 2-1 Lazio (Serie A)
• February 26, 2024: Fiorentina 2-1 Lazio (Serie A)
• October 30, 2023: Lazio 1-0 Fiorentina (Serie A)
• January 29, 2023: Lazio 1-1 Fiorentina (Serie A)

Lazio and Fiorentina Recent Matches Analysis

Lazio Last 5 Matches:

• Lazio 0-2 Napoli (H) - Serie A
• Lazio 1-1 Udinese (A) - Serie A
• Lazio 0-0 Cremonese (H) - Serie A
• Lazio 1-0 Parma (A) - Serie A
• Lazio 1-1 Bologna (H) - Serie A

Lazio's form has been uninspiring recently to say the least, drawing three games in their last five and winning only once. They've failed to beat sides that, realistically, they should be getting results against, instead stagnating and proving unable to find the final push to turn one point into three. Defensively, they've been relatively solid, keeping two clean sheets and conceding four in their last five, which isn't too bad a record to uphold, but it's been their attacking record that is causing concern for Maurizio Sarri; they've found the net only three times in their last five, and have been held goalless twice. They need to demonstrate more guile in the final third, and Fiorentina at home looks like a good place to start.

Fiorentina Last 5 Matches:

• Fiorentina 1-0 Cremonese (H) - Serie A
• Fiorentina 0-1 Parma (A) - Serie A
• Fiorentina 5-1 Udinese (H) - Serie A
• Fiorentina 0-1 Lausanne (A) - UEFA Conference League
• Fiorentina 1-2 Hellas Verona (H) - Serie A

We get to see, in the last five games, where Fiorentina are finally starting to gain a little bit of optimism with their emphatic win over mid-table Udinese, a result that brought them up to two wins in their last 13 games at that point. The scoreline was completely unprecedented given how poor they had been up to that point, capitalising off of Maduka Okoye's early red card that saw their opponents down to 10 men from the eighth minute. They came incredibly close to failing to beat Cremonese in their last outing, despite an onslaught of shots, before Moise Kean became the hero in the 92nd minute to drag Fiorentina off of bottom place. This is the best they've looked all season, but frankly, three losses in their last five still isn't a good record to hold.

Lazio vs Fiorentina Predictions

Our advanced algorithm analyses over 200 data points to generate these predictions with a 60.00% confidence in Lazio to Win. The model factors in current form, head-to-head records, player availability, and tactical matchups.

Best Lazio vs Fiorentina Betting Tips

Football Park’s Best Bet: Lazio to Win @ 2.25 odds on BoyleSports - Despite their form not being particularly positive recently, Lazio still look like the stronger side out of the two, so based on the odds provided they look like good value to back.

Key Players to Watch: Lazio vs Fiorentina

Ivan Provedel (Lazio): Perhaps the main factor into Lazio's excellent defensive record this season has been goalkeeper Ivan Provedel, who has arguably been the club's top performer this season. The Italian has kept nine clean sheets in 18 games, which is a great ratio for a goalkeeper to maintain, and is the best number in the league heading into this game. He holds one of the highest save percentages in Serie A and has become vital to Lazio's solidity at the back this season, so he will be difficult to beat for a struggling Fiorentina frontline.

Rolando Mandragora (Fiorentina): The midfielder has been one of the few at Fiorentina this season who has played to close to their normal standards, with some big names at the club struggling for form. Mandragora, though has been threatening on the attack from his position in the midfield, with five goals to his name in the league and some pretty good performances on top of that.

Lazio vs Fiorentina Match Facts

Broadcast Details: DAZN UK

Referee: N/A

Stadium Information: Located in Rome, the capital of Italy, the Stadio Olimpico is home to both Lazio and Roma, as well as the Italian National Olympic Teams. It has a capacity of 70,000, making it the second largest sporting stadium in the country, only behind San Siro.

Lazio vs Fiorentina: Final Prediction

Lazio 2-0 Fiorentina