Home Win
Lazio 1 - 1 Torino
Who will win?
1
Lazio
x
Draw
2
Torino
Lazio host Torino at the Stadio Olimpico on Saturday, 4 October 2025 (14:00 GMT) in Serie A. The Biancocelesti are favourites with a 33.3% win probability and stronger goal projection (1.5 vs 0.7). However, with a high 40% chance of a draw, Torino’s defensive resilience makes this a potentially tight affair. The model projects a 1-1 correct score in a low-scoring contest.
Date: 4 October 2025
Kick-Off: 14:00 GMT
Competition: Italy Serie A
Venue: Stadio Olimpico, Rome – iconic 70,000-seater, home to Lazio and Roma.
Referee: TBC
Italy: DAZN
UK: TNT Sports 1 / discovery+
International: ESPN+, Paramount+, Bet365 Streaming
Home Win Probability: 33.3%
Away Win Probability: 26.7%
Draw Probability: 40.0%
Correct Score Prediction: 1-1
Both Teams to Score Probability: 53.3%
Over 2.5 Goals Probability: 35.0%
Half-Time/Full-Time Projection: Draw/Draw
Lazio Win @ 1.73 – Backed by their superior attacking output and home advantage.
Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.73 – With just 2.2 expected match goals, this looks like a tight defensive battle.
Expected Match Goals: 2.20
Over 0.5 Goals Probability: 95%
Over 1.5 Goals Probability: 65%
Over 2.5 Goals Probability: 35%
Over 3.5 Goals Probability: 25%
First Half Goals Projection: 0.87 (60% chance of at least one first-half goal)
Best Bet 1: Lazio Win @ 1.73
Best Bet 2: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.73
Lazio’s home form and greater attacking threat give them the edge, but Torino’s knack for grinding out results (with 3 of the last 5 meetings ending level) makes the draw a real possibility. Expect a cautious first half and limited chances, with Lazio to just edge it if clinical.
At Football Park, we highlight value bets through advanced modelling, but remember Serie A is often tactical and low-scoring. Always gamble responsibly and stake within your means.
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