Serie B


BTTS Yes
Bari 1 - 1 Palermo
Who will win?
1

Bari
x
Draw
2

Palermo
Bari host Palermo on Friday 30 January 2026 with kick-off at 19:30 GMT, as two familiar rivals meet in Italy’s Serie B. The match takes place at the Stadio San Nicola, where Bari will look to make home advantage count against a Palermo side pushing for promotion momentum. Using Football Park’s data-driven prediction model, the standout angle for this fixture is Both Teams to Score @ 1.95, a selection backed by an 80% probability and reinforced by a projected 1-1 correct score. Built on the same analytical framework used for fixtures such as San Lorenzo vs Velez Sarsfield, this preview highlights why goals at both ends look more likely than a clear winner in what shapes up as a tight, tactical contest.
Recent meetings between Bari and Palermo underline how closely matched these sides tend to be. Four of the last five encounters have ended level or been decided by a single goal, including a 1-1 draw in August 2022 and a 2-2 stalemate in April 2021. Even when one side has edged the result, both teams have often found the net, supporting the expectation of another competitive and evenly balanced clash.
Football Park’s model strongly favours the draw, rating it at 60%, while Palermo are considered more likely winners than the hosts if the game does tilt either way. Bari’s home win probability is low, but their expected goal output suggests they should still contribute on the scoresheet. Palermo, meanwhile, carry the stronger attacking profile overall, making them well placed to score but not necessarily dominate for 90 minutes.
Football Park’s Best Bet: Both Teams to Score @ 1.95
With an 80% likelihood, this is the strongest-rated market for the match. Both sides are projected to score at least once, and recent head-to-head trends support this selection.
Second Rated Selection: Draw @ 3.40
The model assigns a 60% probability to a stalemate, making the draw an appealing secondary angle given the expected 1-1 scoreline.
The data points towards a steady flow of chances rather than a high-scoring shootout. Over 1.5 match goals is rated at 80%, while the probability drops significantly beyond that mark. The first half is also expected to feature goals, with over 0.5 first-half goals rated at 80%.
The Stadio San Nicola provides a large, atmospheric setting that often brings intensity to Serie B fixtures. Bari’s supporters are known for creating pressure moments, particularly early on, which could contribute to both sides finding openings.
This fixture fits the profile of a classic Serie B battle: competitive, tactically disciplined, and finely balanced. Palermo’s slight edge in overall quality is countered by Bari’s resilience at home, making goals at both ends the most reliable angle.
Predicted lineups are not included in line with editorial guidelines.
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