Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Predictions, Lineups & Betting Tips

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Predictions, Lineups & Betting Tips

Match Details: January 8th, 2026 | King Abdullah Sports City Stadium | Supercopa de España | 19:00 (GMT)

The Madrid Derby. Dating back to its origins over 119 years ago, when Atleti and Real meet, the country of Spain comes to a halt. Even when the sacred rivalry is played in a foreign context, overseas in Saudi Arabia, the match still draws crowds of thousands upon thousands.

The Supercopa tournament pits together a quartet of Spain’s finest clubs in a three-game knockout competition, with the winner taking it all. League form flies out of the window when it comes to these games, making it a tricky task to predict the outcome.

That's why Football Park are here to guide you through the 242nd Madrid Derby, giving you betting tips and predictions free of charge in an attempt to help you make more money.

Key Betting Tip: Over 2.5 Goals & Both Teams to Score at 1.95 odds (Kwiff Bet) represents excellent value based on the tip provided by our team of in-house tipsters. Meaning a bet of £10 could earn you £19.50!

Aside from Barcelona, Atleti and Real are the two highest scoring teams in La Liga this season. There are always goals when this pair butt heads, as both teams have scored in 11 of their last 12 meetings.

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Predicted Lineups

Atletico Madrid Predicted XI (4-4-2): Oblak (GK); Llorente, Pubill, Hancko, Le Normand; Simeone, Barrios, Koke, Baena, Sorloth, Alvarez

Team News: Jose Gimenez could play his first game in over a month after fully recovering from injury and returning to the bench last time out; however, a starting spot is unlikely for the Uruguayan. Elsewhere in defence, Clement Lenglet remains sidelined with a knee injury for at least a few more weeks.

Nicolas Gonzalez has struggled with hamstring issues over the last few weeks. The winger may be selected on the bench, but Alex Baena should continue to start over him on the left flank.

Real Madrid Predicted XI (4-2-3-1): Courtois (GK); Valverde, Huijsen, Rudiger, Carreras; Bellingham, Tchouameni, Guler; Rodrygo, G Garcia, Vinicius

Team News: The most notable miss for this Super Cup Semi-Final is, of course, Kylian Mbappe, who is pushing to recover from a knee injury and might be available for the final if Real advances.

Federico Valverde has been filling in at right-back whilst both Dani Carvajal and Trent Alexander-Arnold are injured; they will not return until the end of the month.

The lengthy injury list continues as Eder Militao continues to be ruled out with a lengthy hamstring injury. Dean Huijsen missed Real’s fixture against Betis; however, his absence was due to a muscle overload, so he should be fit to start once again in Saudi Arabia.

Finally, Brahim Diaz continues to play in the AFCON with Morocco, so he will not travel for this fixture either.

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Current League Standings

There are no current standings for the Supercopa de España. Real Madrid qualified for the tournament by finishing as runners-up in the 2024/25 La Liga and Copa del Rey tournaments. Atletico Madrid qualified for the tournament by finishing 3rd in La Liga.

The winner of this fixture will meet the victor of Barcelona vs Athletic Bilbao this Sunday in Jeddah once again.

The current version of the tournament was first played in 1982. Since then, Real Madrid have won the competition 13 times, reaching the final on 20 occasions. Atletico Madrid have won the cup twice in 1985 and 2014. They have been runners-up five times, most recently in 2020.

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Head-to-Head Timeline

As mentioned above, there have been 241 meetings between Los Blancos and Los Rojiblancos dating back to December 1906. To no surprise, Real Madrid has dominated this fixture, finding themselves on the right side of the scoreline 91 times, Atleti have 61 wins, and there have been 63 draws.

Atletico Madrid are on a two-game win streak against their rivals for the first time in over a decade. That includes their emphatic 5-2 La Liga win over Real back in September.

If Koke makes an appearance in this match, he will overtake Sergio Ramos to become the leading appearance maker in Madrid Derby history (44 apps).

Recent Head-to-Head Results:

• September 2025: Atletico Madrid 5-2 Real Madrid (La Liga)
• March 2025: Atletico Madrid 1-0 Real Madrid (Champions League)
• March 2025: Real Madrid 2-1 Atletico Madrid (Champions League)
• February 2025: Real Madrid 1-1 Atletico Madrid (La Liga)
• September 2024: Atletico Madrid 1-1 Real Madrid (La Liga)

Recent Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid Matches Analysis

Atletico Madrid Last 5 Matches:

• Real Sociedad 1-1 Atletico Madrid (La Liga)
• Girona 0-3 Atletico Madrid (La Liga)
• Atletico Baleares 2-3 Atletico Madrid (Copa del Rey)
• Atletico Madrid 2-1 Valencia (La Liga)
• PSV Eindhoven 2-3 Atletico Madrid (Champions League)

Atleti have lost just two of their last 19 games on the domestic stage, proving to be once again one of the best sides in Spain. That being said, as always, they can never quite keep up with Barca or Real, which is once again the case this season.

A period of four victories might look like a strong spell, but diving deeper, you will see that Atleti barely edged past third-tier club Atletico Baleares, narrowly beating Valencia and PSV as well. Their winning streak was put to an end last weekend, upon their return from the winter break, as Goncalo Guedes’ second-half strike cancelled out Alexander Sorloth’s opener.

Real Madrid Last 5 Matches:

• Real Madrid 5-1 Real Betis (La Liga)
• Real Madrid 2-0 Sevilla (La Liga)
• Talavera de la Reina 2-3 Real Madrid (Copa del Rey)
• Deportivo Alaves 1-2 Real Madrid (La Liga)
• Real Madrid 1-2 Manchester City (Champions League)

Since their derby loss to Atletico in late September, Real Madrid have lost once domestically, going on a rampant streak to try and track down league leaders Barcelona. However, like their rivals, it hasn’t been straightforward. Narrowly beating third-tier opponents Talavera and taking 76 minutes to see off Alaves.

An energetic victory over Betis last week will hold Los Blancos in good spirits as they travel to the Middle East, looking for revenge that is three months overdue.

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Predictions

Our advanced algorithm analyses over 200 data points to generate these predictions with 75% confidence in over 2.5 goals and 80% confidence in both teams to score. The model factors in current form, head-to-head records, player availability, and tactical matchups.

Best Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Betting Tips

Football Park’s Best Bet: Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS @ 1.95 odds (Kwiff) - Our team of in-house betting tipsters have predicted plenty of goals in this fixture. Both sides of Madrid’s form and head-to-head record justify confidence in this selection.

Key Players to Watch: Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid

Gonzalo Garcia (Real Madrid): On the fringes of the Real Madrid starting line-up all season, Garcia stepped up as soon as he was given the chance, thanks to Mbappe’s injury, announcing himself to the world by scoring a league hat-trick against Real Betis. With Mbappe’s return date uncertain, the 21-year-old should be given another chance to lead the line in Jeddah.

Alexander Sorloth (Atletico Madrid): With Julian Alvarez’s form wavering, Sorloth has often started alongside the Argentinian. Picking up two goals, one assist, and one yellow card in his last four games, the Norwegian is a bettor's dream, never shying away from getting stuck in.

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Match Facts

Broadcast Details: This fixture will be shown on TNT Sports 1.

Stadium Information: Located approximately 60 kilometres north of Jeddah, the King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, also called "The Shining Jewel", is a premier venue that opened in 2014, following a two-year construction period. With a seating capacity of 62,241, it serves as the home ground for Al-Ittihad and Al-Ahli and is the second-largest stadium in Saudi Arabia. As a key venue for the upcoming 2034 FIFA World Cup, it remains a central pillar of the country’s sporting future.

Referee: Yet to be announced, typically a notable Spanish referee is selected.