Home Win
Paraguay 1 - 0 Ecuador
Who will win?
1
Paraguay
x
Draw
2
Ecuador
Paraguay face Ecuador in what could be a decisive fixture in both countries bid to reach the 2026 World Cup finals. Both sides currently sit in the automatic qualification places but with Venezuela not yet out of sight in 7th place, it is still all to play for. Paraguay currently sit in 5th on 24 points after a very good campaign thus far, whereas Ecuador sit even higher up the table in 2nd on 25 points, which includes a three point deduction which they received after filing a document which used fake information about one of their players.
Key Betting Tips: In a tight game, Paraguay to win @ 2.35 offers good value.
Paraguay Predicted Lineup Fernandez, G. Gomez, Alonso, Caceres, Alderete, Bobadilla, Kaku, Cubas, D.Gomez, Sanabria, Almiron
Ecuador Predicted Lineup _Valle, Estupinan, Ordonez, Hincapie, Pacho, Caicedo, Vite, Yeboah, Franco, Angulo, Rodriguez
Paraguay do come into this game off the back of a 1-0 defeat to Brazil, but that result doesn't tell the full story of their form. Before that fixture, Paraguay went nine World Cup Qualifier games unbeaten with big scalps like a 2-1 win over current group toppers Argentina back in November last year. Paraguay haven't been particularly prolific goalscorers with just 13 across the 16 games so far, but have a very solid defence, only conceding 10 goals.
Ecuador are currently on a nine game unbeaten run in the qualifiers, but it is worth noting that five of those games have ended as 0-0 draws. Similarly to Paraguay, they have just 13 goals across the 16 games, but have an even better defence than their opponents, only conceding a mightily impressive five goals in the entire competition thus far.
The last five fixtures between the two countries have all been tightly contested affairs, Paraguay have won two, two have been a draw, and Ecuador have won one. The last fixture, which took place earlier in the current World Cup Qualifiers ended in a dreary 0-0 draw where both sides struggled to get the upper hand in attacking areas, further cementing the closeness expected in the upcoming fixture.
Recent Head-to-Head Results
10.10.25 Ecuador 0-0 Paraguay
24.03.22 Paraguay 3-1 Ecuador
02.09.21 Ecuador 2-0 Paraguay
23.03.17 Paraguay 2-1 Ecuador
24.03.16 Ecuador 2-2 Paraguay
Our advanced algorithm analyses 200 date points to generate these predictions with a confidence in a Paraguay win with not many goals expected. This model takes into account current form, head-to-head records, player availability, and tactical matchups.
Football Park's Best Bet Paraguay win @ 2.35
Omar Alderete (Paraguay) As mentioned, Paraguay's defence has been a staple of their success so far, and Omar Alderete has been an integral part of that. The centre back, who recently made a move to newly promoted Premier League side Sunderland, has been a rock for his country, garnering the highest average match rating for his side so far in the qualifiers. Alderete is also a goal threat from set peices having scored two goals in the campaign thus far.
Antonio Sarabia (Paraguay) The Cremonese forward has scored four goals in the qualifiers so far, making him Paraguay's top goalscorer. Given Ecuador's exceptional defensive record, the striker will undoubtedly have his work cut out if he is to add to his tally in the fixture, but it will be crucial he does so if Paraguay are to get a victory over the line on Friday.
Moises Caicedo (Ecuador) The Chelsea midfielder has been a massive part of Ecuador's campaign thus far, both in providing a shield for his countries backline and creating in forward areas providing 3 assists- both of which will be crucial if they are to defeat Paraguay in this fixture. Caicedo also has the highest average rating in the World Cup qualifiers for his country with a monumental 7.51 to his name.
Enner Valencia (Ecuador) In a similar way to mentioned with Antonio Sanabria, Enner Valencia will have his work cut out against this strong Paraguay backline to get any goalscoring success. However, his current tally of five goals would suggest he is in the sort of form that could breach the oppositions defence.
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