Italy vs Estonia Predictions, Lineups & Betting Tips

Match Details: September 5th, 2025 | Gewiss Stadium | UEFA World Cup Qualification | 19:45 (BST)

The Gewiss Stadium in Bergamo is the stage for a World Cup qualifier between Italy and Estonia this Friday. The European champions, Italy, will be looking to get their qualifying campaign back on track after a mixed start that has seen them win one and lose one of their opening two games. They face an Estonian side that has also had a difficult start to their campaign. While Italy will be the heavy favourites and will be expected to win comfortably, they will be aware of the need to perform and not underestimate their opponents. Estonia, meanwhile, will be hoping to contain the damage and snatch a surprise result, as they have been competitive in their previous games despite not getting the results. This match is a chance for Italy to reassert their dominance and begin their climb up the Group I table.

Key Betting Tip: Key Betting Tip: Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS at 2.68 odds (Kwiff Bet) represents excellent value based on the tip provided by our team of in-house tipsters.

Italy vs Estonia Predicted Lineups

Italy Predicted XI: Gianluigi Donnarumma, Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Alessandro Bastoni, Gianluca Mancini, Federico Dimarco, Manuel Locatelli, Nicolò Barella, Nicolò Zaniolo, Giacomo Raspadori, Matteo Politano, Gianluca Scamacca

Estonia Predicted XI:_ Karl Jakob Hein, Joseph Saliste, Rasmus Peetson, Joonas Tamm, Michael Schjönning-Larsen, Martin Miller, Mihkel Ainsalu, Vlasiy Sinyavskiy, Henri Anier, Rauno Sappinen, Alex Matthias Tamm_

Italy vs Estonia Current League Standings

Italy have played two matches in Group I, beating Moldova and losing to group leaders Norway. This leaves them in 3rd with a huge mountain to climb in order to topple Norway in 1st who have won all four of their qualification games so far.

Estonia on the other hand have never qualified for a World Cup, a statement that doesn’t look like it’ll be altered ahead of the 2026 edition. The Blueshirts have won one of their four games, beating Moldova and losing to Norway and Israel twice.

Italy vs Estonia Head-to-Head Timeline

The Italians have a perfect record against the Estonians, beating them in all 7 of their meetings. In fact Estonia have only scored twice against Italy.

Recent Head-to-Head Results:

• November 2020: Italy 4-0 Estonia (International Friendly)
• June 2011: Italy 3-0 Estonia (European Championship Qualification)
• September 2010: Estonia 1-2 Italy (European Championship Qualification)
• March 1995: Italy 4-1 Estonia (European Championship Qualification)
• October 1994: Estonia 0-2 Italy (European Championship Qualification)

Italy have won their last two matches against Estonia by an aggregate score of 7-0.

Recent Italy and Estonia Matches Analysis

Italy Last 5 Matches:

• Italy 2-0 Moldova (World Cup Qualification)
• Norway 3-0 Italy (World Cup Qualification)
• Germany 3-3 Italy (Nations League)
• Italy 1-2 Germany (Nations League)
• Italy 1-3 France (Nations League)

Despite only winning one of their last five, Italy have had some tough opponents in the Nations League. The anomaly in their run of fixtures is a shock 3-0 loss to Norway, a result which has harmed their chances of qualifying for next years World Cup.

Estonia Last 5 Matches:

• Estona 0-1 Norway (World Cup Qualification)
• Estonia 1-3 Israel (World Cup Qualification)
• Moldova 2-3 Estonia (World Cup Qualification)
• Israel 2-1 Estonia (World Cup Qualification
• Slovakia 1-0 Estonia (Nations League)

It is no surprise that Estonia have won three of their last 26 matches, struggling in the Nations League C upon promotion from the D League. World Cup Qualifiying has not gone much better, but at least they shouldn’t finish last in their group.

Italy vs Estonia Predictions

Our advanced algorithm analyses over 200 data points to generate these predictions with confidence in both teams to score AND over 2.5 goals. The model factors in current form, head-to-head records, player availability, and tactical matchups.

Best Italy vs Estonia Betting Tips

Football Park’s Best Bet: Over 2.5 & BTTS @ 2.68 - Our team of in-house betting tipsters have predicted both teams to score AND over 2.5 goals in this fixture. Their superior form, home advantage, and head-to-head record justify confidence in this selection.

Key Players to Watch: Italy vs Estonia

Nicolò Barella (Italy): The Inter Milan midfielder is the engine of the Italian team. His tireless work rate, intelligent passing, and ability to break up opposition attacks make him a crucial player. He has a great knack for getting into dangerous positions in the final third and has contributed with key goals and assists for his country. Against Estonia, his control of the midfield will be vital for Italy to dominate the game.

Gianluca Scamacca (Italy): The striker has become the focal point of Italy's attack and will be relied upon to provide the goals. His physical presence, clinical finishing, and ability to hold up the ball make him a handful for any defender. Against a compact Estonian defence, his ability to create space for his teammates and get on the end of crosses will be key to unlocking the opposition.

Karl Jakob Hein (Estonia): The young goalkeeper is a rising star in European football. He has already shown his quality for his country and will be looking to make some key saves to keep Estonia in the game. His shot-stopping ability and commanding presence in the box will be put to the test against a strong Italian attack. He is a player who can single-handedly keep his team in a match.

Italy vs Estonia Match Facts

Broadcast Details: This fixture will be available to stream on Amazon Prime in the UK with the correct subscription.

Stadium Information: The Stadio Atleti Azzurri d'Italia, known as the Stadio di Bergamo in UEFA competitions, is a stadium in Bergamo, Italy. It is the home of Serie A club Atalanta and has a capacity of 24.950 seats. The stadium in Bergamo has also been used as a home ground for various matches of the Italy national team.

Referee: N/A