Falling Upwards - How Derby County Find Themselves (Somehow) in a Promotion Battle

I think it’s more than fair to say that Derby County fans have not had an easy time of things this season - our resident Rams fan Chris can attest to that.

And yet, after a stubborn 2-1 win over Swansea City on Tuesday night, John Eustace’s men find themselves level on points with sixth-placed Bristol City, effectively placing them in the Championship play-off positions.

THREE POINTS ON THE ROAD! ✅ pic.twitter.com/xP6e8Df6z1

— Derby County (@dcfcofficial) November 25, 2025

Their upward surge has seemingly come out of nowhere - it wasn’t all that long ago that the Rams had won just one of their opening 12 games in all competitions despite some heavy summer spending; there was even talk of Eustace being just games away from the sack.

Their stats also suggest they shouldn’t be anywhere near the top six. Their 27% possession against Swansea was the lowest figure they have clocked all season, and despite boasting more shots than the Swans, few would have been surprised if the scoreline was flipped.

So how have Derby managed to fall upwards despite lacking the quality so clearly possessed by neighbouring sides? And how has Eustace turned things around after such a rotten start to the season?

Back to Basics

The opening weeks of Derby’s season were met with total uproar - the lack of creativity, the underperformance of star signings, and a general displeasure at their style of play turned Pride Park from the fortress it was at the end of last season into a cauldron of pressure. However, this pressure was not directed at the away side but instead at their own players.

Their opening 10 league games saw them concede 16 times while scoring just 11 in reply, a shocking opening run when their form at the end of the season prior is considered. Their only win in that time was a cagey 1-0 success away at West Brom and, aside from that result, they had never really looked close to picking up maximum points.

The discontent around their home ground only grew with each performance, and though attacking reinforcements had been brought in over the summer in the shape of Patrick Agyemang, Carlton Morris, Rhian Brewster, Ben Brereton-Diaz and Andreas Weimann, only Morris would start strongly from the off, scoring in each of his first three games for the club.

🐏 Derby County signings so far:

Patrick Agyemang ✅
Rhian Brewster ✅
Andi Weimann ✅
Danny Batth ✅
Richard O'Donnell ✅
Carlton Morris ✅
Bobby Clark ✅
Owen Beck ✅
David Ozoh ✅ pic.twitter.com/LNRgnAzLjM

— The #EFL Zone (@TheFLZone) August 5, 2025

It may sound odd, but something seemed to click for the Rams in a period when they picked up just three points in five games - they conceded just one goal in each and every one of these games, as Eustace realised that he had a solid defensive foundation that he could capitalise on.

Most managers fear focusing on defence - it is every coach's goal to get their side playing attractive attacking football which gets fans on their feet and collates a catalogue of spectacular goals. However, Eustace has leaned into a more defensive approach - a start from the bottom, work towards the top mentality.

It has worked; following this run of five winless games, Derby notched two consecutive 1-0 wins, and in their four subsequent wins since, have conceded just once - a remarkable turnaround for a club that just a month prior was being heavily criticised for having no on-field identity.

A Case in Point

Their win over Swansea serves as the perfect case study for Eustace’s methods - forgoing possession of the ball with just 27% possession, his players are more than happy to sit behind the ball and position themselves to spring a counter-attack - their second goal, a supremely accurate finish by Norway’s Lars Salvesen, came from just such a scenario.

Moreover, this pattern repeats over and over again as you go through all of Derby’s 25/26 fixtures - of the 19 games Derby have competed in so far this season, they have held the ball more than their opponents on just three occasions.

The win was made all the more impressive in Morris’ absence. The former Luton man is the club’s top scorer by a margin of eight, with his 10 strikes enough to put him joint top of the Golden Boot standings alongside Coventry’s Thomas-Asante. Absent from the squad last night, there were well-founded concerns for Derby’s welfare.

However, the front three of Diaz, Agyemang and Salvesen caused their own set of problems, and despite the Norwegian netting only his second goal of the season to win the game, he couldn’t have contributed at a better time.

🗣️ Derby County boss John Eustace on Carlton Morris' injury: "The final [scan] results aren't in yet. It's going to take at least two to three months, which is a blow, and hopefully we can get him right for February/March time."

What a blow for the Rams. 😔#DCFC pic.twitter.com/UjkVwNEMmx

— The Championship Chat Podcast (@Champchatpod24) November 26, 2025

Seen as almost totally reliant on Morris in recent months, Eustace’s men showed that they could do it without their star striker, an attribute that every promotion hopeful needs to exhibit to show they can still get results through thick and thin. However, with their marksman set to be out for up to three months, it remains to be seen how they will cope without him for more prolonged periods.

Just a “Purple Patch”?

However, this is not to say that the Rams are invulnerable - despite winning in Wales last night, keeper Jacob Zetterstrom still needed to make a series of good saves to maintain their winning margin, and in attack, they have only mustered double-figure shot totals in two of their last five games.

Though they are picking up positive results right now, their style of play means that the tiniest shift in momentum could see their form swing the other way, and Eustace would effectively be back where he was in early October.

I was almost convinced that their defeat to Watford at the weekend was that aforementioned momentum swing - leading 2-0 on their hour mark, they underwent a remarkable capitulation which saw the Hornet’s net three goals in 27 minutes to completely turn the game on its head and, in the process, put an end to Derby’s five-game winning streak.

When was the last time we had a fanbase rattled as much as Derby County? Honestly, they’re on strings because they blew a 2-0 lead, when they were second best throughout. Quality stuff. #WatfordFC 😂😂

— Sam. (@WatfordSam) November 24, 2025

With their heads bowed from that shocking result, I was expecting a poor performance away at Swansea, a side reeling from a horrendous slip-up that had the potential to knock confidence in a big way.

So I was impressed when I saw a side full of intention and drive, a side convinced that the game plan would work, and a side willing to execute it whatever the circumstance - one thing you cannot knock John Eustace for is his player management; he has these players well and truly on his side.

Though Swansea did net a late consolation goal to make added time more than a little uncomfortable, Derby saw the game out well. While their performances have been far from dominant, the only stat that matters at the end of the day is the scoreline, and as long as that is in their favour, everyone is going home happy.

The victory made it 18 points from the last 21 available - that is identical form to league leaders Coventry over the same period, illustrating that despite the obvious gulf in quality, Derby have battled to have the right to be in and around the promotion conversation.

The two goals to make it 6️⃣ wins from 7️⃣ @SkyBetChamp matches. ✨ pic.twitter.com/XvAY6auGMV

— Derby County (@dcfcofficial) November 25, 2025

Their recent resurgence has even led to billionaire and former part-Crystal Palace owner John Textor showing interest in buying the club, having sold his share at the Eagles earlier this year. Despite many Derby fans not wanting Textor anywhere near their club, it is testament to the work Eustace has done that Derby are considered a club worthy of heavy investment again.

Though their form will likely drop off before the end of the campaign, and consequently rule them out of the promotion battle, the mood at the club right now is the best it has been in years, and who knows - there is always a slim chance they can pull off the impossible. Not sure what Chris would say about that though …