AFCON's Final Four Analysed: Strengths, Weaknesses and Who Goes All the Way

AFCON's Final Four Analysed: Strengths, Weaknesses and Who Goes All the Way

Things are reaching boiling point in Morocco as AFCON 2026 surges towards its defining moments.

True to AFCON tradition, the tournament has delivered chaos and controversy in equal measure, but now the margins are thin. After a pulsating quarter-final stage, Nigeria, Senegal, Egypt and hosts Morocco have emerged as the final four. Wednesday night sets the stage; Senegal face Egypt in a heavyweight showdown, while Nigeria collide with the nation riding the home support.

The 2025 AFCON Semi-finals will be one for the books. pic.twitter.com/RT6yVou9Gi

— NoteS. (@NoteSphere) January 11, 2026

Today, we break down how each side has reached this stage, the moments that have defined their campaign so far, and who looks built to survive the pressure and lift the trophy.

Senegal: Sadio's Swansong?

The Lions of Teranga finished top of Group D, comfortably defeating Botswana and Benin, and drawing to DR Congo. The round of 16 saw them breeze past Sudan 3-1, and while it was a cagey affair, Everton's Iliman Ndiaye scored the only goal of the game as the side beat Mali 1-0 to progress to the semi-finals.

🔵 @Everton forward Iliman Ndiaye scores the only goal as Senegal beat Mali to reach the AFCON semi-finals 🇸🇳 🌍 pic.twitter.com/lRVXMiEXdK

— Premier League (@premierleague) January 9, 2026

Senegal have built their AFCON charge on defensive steel, conceding just three goals throughout the tournament. With Champions League-winning goalkeeper Edouard Mendy standing guard, and the imperious Kalidou Koulibaly marshalling the backline with authority, breaking Senegal down has proven an increasingly futile task.

The midfield also contains stability, with the vastly experienced Idrissa Gana Gueye sitting at the heart of it, making them a very difficult team to break down. Their attack has been lively all tournament too, with 11 goals scored. Goals from Nicolas Jackson and Iliman Ndiaye have proved to be vital for Senegal, but it's the permanent class of Senegal legend Sadio Mané on the left wing who really gets the wheels turning. With 3 assists and 1 goal already this tournament, Mané's experience has been instrumental for Senegal.

Congratulations to Sadio Mane and Senegal for making it to the semi finals of AFCON! 🤩🇸🇳 pic.twitter.com/tKx5Q86ObL

— The Anfield Buzz (@TheAnfieldBuzz) January 9, 2026

Senegal lifted the AFCON trophy in 2022, edging past Egypt on penalties. This semi-final marks the first time the two sides have met in competitive action since that dramatic night, adding an extra layer of intrigue to an already heavyweight clash. With Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mané set to share the pitch once more, fireworks are inevitable. Senegal remain a notoriously tough nut to crack, and they may just have enough to edge it again.

Egypt: Mo's Last Dance

Egypt finished top of Group B, narrowly defeating Zimbabwe and South Africa, before drawing with Angola in their final group game. The Pharaohs beat Benin 3-1 in the Round of 16, courtesy of an extra time winner from Mo Salah. The quarter-finalists then knock out the holders, Ivory Coast, in a dramatic 3-2 victory, with Salah yet again scoring the defining goal.

While only conceding 4 goals all tournament, it's the attack of Egypt that really puts them on the front foot, scoring 9 goals so far. Salah is the side's top scorer with 4 goals, and Man City's Omar Marmoush also has 2 goals to his name.

Mo Salah has scored in every game for Egypt at AFCON this year and his side are now just a game away from the final. pic.twitter.com/R8D05QmEKY

— Sports Illustrated FC (@SI_FootballClub) January 10, 2026

For many, this tournament feels like Mohamed Salah’s last shot at continental glory with Egypt, and the moment has arrived. But this side is far more than a one-man show. Creative force Emam Ashour was instrumental against Ivory Coast, registering two assists and repeatedly unsettling their backline. Operating in a bold 3-4-1-2 system, head coach Hossam Hassan has embraced a ruthless counter-attacking approach that has sent ripples of fear across the continent.

Facing Senegal represents Egypt’s toughest examination yet, but with history, urgency and belief surging through the squad, the Pharaohs may just find a way to drag themselves over the line.

Nigeria: The Super Eagles to Soar?

Nigeria steamrolled Group C, winning all their games and scoring 8 goals in the process. The Super Eagles thumped Mozambique 4-0 in the Round of 16 and then comfortably defeated Riyad Mahrez's Algeria 2-0 in the quarter-finals.

Nigeria have scored 16 goals in the AFCON so far, and only conceded 3 times. After failing to qualify for the World Cup in the summer, some may say Nigeria have come into this tournament with a chip on their shoulder, and it's definitely showing in their performances.

When Lookman hops on Osimhen you know it’s clicking. 🇳🇬#TotalEnergiesAFCON2025 | #WeCelebrateDifferent pic.twitter.com/hUbXn0XqnL

— TotalEnergies AFCON 2025 (@CAF_Online) January 10, 2026

The squad is stacked; Fulham's Calvin Bassey marshals the backline, captain Wilfred Ndidi sits in the centre of the park, and Alex Iwobi adds a creative spark behind the most dangerous attacking trio in the tournament. With 17 goal involvements between the three of them, Ademola Lookman, Akor Adams, and Victor Osimhen ignite the Super Eagles.

Osimhen has 4 goals to his name so far, and had it not been for some hilarious confusion as to who the side's designated penalty taker is, he may have more to his name. Easily one of the most dangerous strikers in the world, Victor Osimhen is one of the star performers of the tournament.

Many have marvelled over the transformation of Alex Iwobi in the side, with comparisons being made to his uncle, Jay-Jay Okocha, who previously tasted glory with Nigeria in the Olympics. Iwobi's tenacity in his box-to-box role, accompanied by his creative ability, has made Nigeria dangerous in yet another part of the pitch.

Alex Iwobi is pulling the strings for Nigeria 🫡

The Super Eagles’ midfield general has completed 46 defence-splitting passes at AFCON, more than double than any of his teammates 🎩🪄 pic.twitter.com/yjp0Xu8uv2

— LiveScore (@livescore) January 10, 2026

Nigeria came second in the last AFCON, narrowly losing to Ivory Coast. However, this time, they may go one further. It has been 13 years since Nigeria won the AFCON, last tasting glory in 2013, and some may argue that another title is long overdue. Facing Morcco won't be easy, but the attacking prowess of the side may prove too much to handle for the hosts.

Morocco: Hosts On a Homecoming Mission

With one AFCON title to their name, winning it in 1976, the time for victory is now for Morocco.

After impressing on the global stage back in 2022, becoming the first African country to ever reach the last four of the FIFA World Cup, Morocco's prowess and comeuppance have been at the forefront of international football in the 2020s.

The Atlas Lions comfortably topped Group A, going unbeaten. The knockout rounds saw them beat Tanzania 1-0 in the Round of 16 and then go on to beat one of the tournament favourites, Cameroon, 2-0 in the quarters.

Good luck getting past the Atlas Lions 😅🇲🇦

Morocco have conceded just ONE goal at AFCON 2025… and it came from the spot 🤩🍿 pic.twitter.com/BYwV7eCQGp

— OneFootball (@OneFootball) January 10, 2026

Morocco are defensively solid, only conceding once all tournament. Veteran Yassine Bounou is protected by the world-class ability of Achraf Hakimi at right back and former West Ham centre back Nayef Aguerd. Moving forward, the stability of Roma's Neil El Ayanaoui in the midfield has made them an incredibly difficult side to break down.

Real Madrid's Brahim Diaz has been on fire this tournament, scoring 5 goals thus far. Furthermore, Azzedine Ounahi has been a maverick in the midfield, providing 2 assists and putting in displays reminiscent of his 2022 World Cup performances. Striker Ayoub El Kaabi also has 3 goals to his name.

What a tournament Brahim Díaz is having 🌟 pic.twitter.com/jAtvrTyCpv

— B/R Football (@brfootball) January 9, 2026

Many see this as Morocco’s greatest ever opportunity to reclaim AFCON glory. Powered by a raucous home crowd and the weight of national expectation, the hosts face a monumental test in the form of Nigeria, but should they navigate that hurdle, destiny may well be on their side in the final.

Closing Remarks

Everything now boils down to a defining Wednesday night, where AFCON’s final two will be decided. Expect nerves, noise and moments that live long in the memory, because when Africa’s finest collide at this stage, history is never written quietly. Grab the popcorn; this one has 'blockbuster' written all over it.

History awaits. 🏆#TotalEnergiesAFCON2025 | #WePlayDifferent pic.twitter.com/YlYiL0CsLo

— TotalEnergies AFCON 2025 (@CAF_Online) January 12, 2026