The Europa League is back, and it’s an exciting period for fans of teams in the competition, along with fans of the competition as a whole.

I am admittedly one of the latter, and for some reason I have always had a special connection to the little brother of the Champions League. Whilst it’s not the biggest trophy in the world, it does present an excellent opportunity for lower statured clubs to get their hands on some fabled silverware.

So who will get their mitts round the odd almost hexagonal–trapezoid based prism trophy this year? The very kind supercomputers at Opta have been nice enough to churn out some predictions. After running 10,000 simulations, and taking into account all sorts of obscure stats, it’s given us a rough idea on the favourites for the competition.

Without further ado, here are Opta’s five most likely teams to lift the 2024/25 Europa League.

5. AS Roma - 8.2%

Runners up in 2022/23, Roma will be looking to add a Europa League Trophy to their collection, and Opta sees them as the fifth most likely to do so.

Under the new management of Ivan Juric, Roma will be looking to best their rivals Lazio (who Opta reckon have a (6.1% chance) to the trophy.

I hate to say it, but there’s a decent chance that football comes Rome again.

@EuropaLeague 🔜 #ASRoma | #UEL pic.twitter.com/EO9Du6FRRi

— AS Roma English (@ASRomaEN) September 25, 2024

4. Tottenham Hotspur - 8.6%

Has Ange Postecoglou ever mentioned that he wins trophies in his second season?

Tottenham are yet to win major silverware in the modern era, but the Australian has let the media know he’s planning on it this year.

Still looking to move on from the Harry Kane shaped hole in their front line, they’ll need new signing Solanke to start firing on all cylinders to get this one done.

That being said, the supercomputer probably knows more than me, so they’ll be up there this season, and could finally silence all the trophy cabinet jokes.

Tottenham training ahead of their Europa League match against Qarabag tomorrow ⬜ pic.twitter.com/xsZ8jvFzPH

— Sky Sports Football (@SkyFootball) September 25, 2024

3. Slavia Praha - 9.6%

2018/19 quarter-finalists Slavia Praha up next, and it’s unsurprising too.

The Czech side are on the up, along with the rest of Czech football, and Trpisovsky could lead them to glory this season. They should gain some momentum with a great opening fixture against Ludogorets.

However, they’d have to do extremely well to best either of the top two teams, who are well established in European competitions.

⚽ Today at 22:00 🕙 Ludogorets vs Slavia (Praha), Europa League - league phase #ludogorets #slaviapraha #uel pic.twitter.com/kdqhliTAvX

— PFC Ludogorets 1945 (@Ludogorets1945) September 25, 2024

2. Athletic Club - 10.9%

Unsurprisingly, Athletic Club are second favourites to win the coveted competition.

Despite their recruitment policy, the Basque-based club have an extremely strong squad, and it will only get stronger. Nico Williams impressed in both La Liga and the Euros so far, and he’ll be vital to any success they have.

I’d guess a lot people will be banking on them winning the whole thing.

⌛🇪🇺@EuropaLeague, we are ready. #RomaAthletic #UniqueInTheWorld 🦁 pic.twitter.com/XaAYr3jbl2

— Athletic Club (@AthleticClub) September 24, 2024

1. Porto - 17.8%

Last, but certainly not least, Porto are Opta’s favourites to win the competition.

Out of the 10,000 simulations, they dominated proceedings with a 6.9% margain over second place, and with good reason. Despite losing Evanilson to Bournemouth in the summer, Porto have an excellent squad.

Thanks to the growth of Portuguese football, which is now competing closely with some of the ‘big five’ European leagues.

After their surprising Champions League victory under Jose Mourinho, no one would be shocked if they pulled this one off.

🐉 | FC Porto are favourites to win the UEFA Europa League according to the Opta Supercomputer 👀

Full piece here, great stuff from @Benson_92.https://t.co/uJsFWoIjk6 pic.twitter.com/tWe086i5Lp

— Aaron Barton (@Aaron__Barton) September 24, 2024