
What a fixture we have on our hands here. Newcastle United's recent home fixtures have been nothing short of chaos, while Manchester City scored just ten goals in FA Cup victory over Exeter. There is good reason to believe that this matchup will provide great entertainment as competition holders Newcastle hope to make a telling statement in their title defense.
The last time the two sides met at St. James' Park was decided by a Harvey Barnes brace to seal a dramatic home victory. The history of this fixture shows that the odd goal is usually what separates these two, but that's not to say that we shouldn't be expecting goals here.
We have used a combination of data provided by our in-house tipster and our football brains to produce both value bet and longshot bet accumulators ahead of this EFL Cup tie.
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Over 8.5 Corners Newcastle Win/Draw BTTS Over 2.5 Goals
Total Odds: 4.75 (£10 Stake Returns £47.50)
Anthony Gordon to Score Anytime Over 3.5 Goals Newcastle United to Win From Behind
Total Odds: 31.00 (£10 Stake Returns £320)
BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals: Possibly the least we should expect between these two. As previously mentioned, both sides come into this fixture on fine scoring form. Newcastle has scored 12 goals in their last five matches, nine of these coming on home soil. Visitors Manchester City better that with 14 goals in five, though it is worth noting that the goals had dried up for Guardiola's side until they welcomed The Grecians. Three of the last six meetings between Manchester City and Newcastle United at St. James Park have aligned with this bet, so we are willing to side with the 50% strike rate to return again.
Home Double Chance & Corner Chaos: Let's be real, Newcastle is a force to be reckoned with at home. They have not been defeated here since September and have won 11 from 13 home matches since then. Manchester City are no slouchers themselves. Undefeated in their last 12 matches, victorious in nine is good enough reason to side with the double chance bet. Thrilling fixtures tend to include end-to-end action, and we can see the corner tally rising over the course of the action. Their last match here totaled 14 corners, followed by 11 in the game prior. Manchester City had 13 corners themselves when they last claimed victory here in January 2024.
Gordon Goal: Anthony Gordon may not possess the best scoring record this season, but getting on the scoresheet against Bournemouth last time out will be a confidence boost for the winger. Gordon has a good scoring record against Manchester City, having scored in consecutive home appearances against this opposition. He will be eager to bring his impressive form in the Champions League across to this competition in a key fixture.
Newcastle to Win From Behind: If you have been following Newcastle recently, then you can understand why we are backing this bet. The Magpies found themselves behind three times against Leeds United before a stoppage time winner from Harvey Barnes saw them claim all three points. Despite going ahead against Bournemouth, they soon after found themselves behind, and yet again managed to find a way to win the game (via a penalty shootout). It would be no surprise if Manchester City were to go ahead but we have learned that Eddie Howe's side will not go away without a fight. This would also incorporate our over 3.5 goals suggestion if the mayhem were to play out.
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