
We have a blockbuster fixture on our hands for the 5:30pm kick off on Saturday. Relegation fighting Leeds welcome title chasing Manchester City to Elland Road as both sides will be optimistic to take all three points.
Leeds have lost just once in their last eight matches in all competitions and that game being a 4-0 loss to Arsenal. Optimism will be high amongst the Elland Road faithful because this game is a night game and for other teams that might not mean much but here at Elland Road it means a whole lot. Since April 2023 Leeds have played 21 evening games at home, they’ve won a staggering 18 of them, drawing three and not lost once, this unbelievable record could play a huge factor for this game considering what’s at stake for both sides. Will the unbeaten record continue?
Manchester City on the other hand have won five games in a row and haven’t lost since the 20th of January against Bodo/Glimt in the UCL. This is a game the Citizens have dominated, winning six, drawing and losing just once, the biggest victory came back in December of 2021 where City came out 7-0 winners. On paper they should be winning this game and really have to if they want to keep the pressure on Arsenal, however Elland Road is a very tough place to come to, especially at night.
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Semenyo 1+ shot on target
Both teams to receive a card
Dominic Calvert-Lewin 1+ foul committed
Total Odds: 2.70
£10 returns £27
Leeds double chance
Both teams to receive 2+ cards
Dominic Calvert-Lewin 1+ shot on target
Anton Stach 2+ tackles
Leeds over 2 corners
Total Odds: 15.00
£10 returns £150
Low Risk: Starting things off with a Semenyo shot on target. The January signing has hit the ground running at his new club, scoring five times in his first 10 games for the club. He has had a shot on target in his last five Premier League games and a game where City should hold the majority of possession will give Semenyo plenty of opportunities to get that all important shot on target.
Both teams were booked in the last meeting with City getting a total of four cards, as well as that both teams have been booked in Leeds’ last four Premier League games and has happened in City’s last 11. The referee Peter Bankes averages 3.74 yellows per game and has given out 86 yellows this Premier League season.
And finally DCL to commit a foul, he commits 1.48 fouls per 90 and as well as that he committed a foul in the reverse fixture despite playing just 45 minutes. Marc Guehi is fouled a total of 0.88 times per game, when the two met in Leeds 4-1 win over Palace, Guehi was fouled a total of two times, one of them being DCL.
High Risk: Starting with Leeds double chance, we are banking on their brilliant home record under the lights to continue, a packed Elland Road can do wonders to boost the Leeds teams confidence, regardless of the players City have.
We can see this game getting quite tasty with what’s at stake so we’ve gone a little bolder with the cards and gone 2+ for each team. With five cards occurring in the previous fixture. In City’s last four matches each team has been booked twice three times.
DCL to get a shot on target has happened in four of his last five games and he got two last time out vs Villa, as well as this he scored against City this season. He averages 1.18 shots on target per match along with 2.51 shots per game. As well he is also on penalties which is a bonus to have.
Anton Stach has been a tackle machine this season, he averages 2.27 per 90 and in a game where City will have a lot of the ball he could easily rack up 3,4,5 tackles. Unfortunately he didn’t feature in the reverse fixture so we can’t compare his tackles in that game but what we can do is look at games where Leeds’ opposition had most of the possession and see how he did tackling. Against Everton who had 58%, Stach had five tackles. Against Newcastle who had 62%, Stach had three tackles. Against Manchester United who had 55%, Stach had five tackles. (These examples are quite a while ago because Stach was out injured)
And our last leg is Leeds to have over 2 corners in the game, with the Leeds crowd behind them we can hope Leeds have a good spell during the game forcing City back and capitalising on the pressure which would in theory deliver corners. Best case scenario we get a corner from a corner.
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