BTTS Yes
Newcastle 1 - 2 Bradford
Who will win?
1
Newcastle
x
Draw
2
Bradford
Newcastle United welcome Bradford City to St James’ Park on Wednesday, 24 September 2025 (19:45 GMT) in the England League Cup. Despite the Magpies being huge bookmakers’ favourites at just 1.12 odds, Football Park’s algorithm rates Bradford with a surprising 60% chance of progressing.
The model projects a 1-2 away win, with Bradford’s attacking metrics (1.9 xG) outpacing Newcastle’s (1.2 xG). If Eddie Howe rotates his squad, the Bantams’ value at 15.00 odds becomes an intriguing upset pick.
Match Details
Date: 24 September 2025
Kick-Off: 19:45 GMT
Competition: England League Cup (EFL Cup)
Venue: St James’ Park, Newcastle – a 52,000+ capacity stadium known for its electric atmosphere.
Referee: TBC
UK: Sky Sports Football / Sky Go
International: ESPN+ (US), DAZN (selected regions), Bet365 streaming
Home Win Probability: 20%
Away Win Probability: 60%
Draw Probability: 20%
Correct Score Prediction: 1-2
Both Teams to Score Probability: 72%
Over 2.5 Goals Probability: 66.7%
Half-Time/Full-Time Projection: Draw/Away
Bradford to Win @ 15.00 – With the model giving them a 60% win chance, this is a standout value bet.
Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS @ 2.50 – Goals at both ends expected, with a lively cup tie likely.
Expected Match Goals: 3.10
Over 0.5 Goals Probability: 100%
Over 1.5 Goals Probability: 86.7%
Over 2.5 Goals Probability: 66.7%
Over 3.5 Goals Probability: 40%
First Half Goals Projection: 1.30 (70% chance of at least one first-half goal)
Best Bet 1: Bradford to Win @ 15.00
Best Bet 2: Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS @ 2.50
Bradford are the algorithm’s giant-killer pick of the round, with their efficiency in attack potentially punishing a rotated Newcastle XI. A 1-2 correct score reflects the model’s outcome and offers huge betting value.
At Football Park, we use advanced data models to highlight value bets, but remember that cup competitions are notoriously unpredictable. Always bet responsibly and never risk more than you can afford to lose.
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