English League Two


Home Win
Cheltenham 3 - 0 Shrewsbury
Who will win?
1

Cheltenham
x
Draw
2

Shrewsbury
Cheltenham welcome Shrewsbury to the Completely-Suzuki Stadium on 26 December 2025 at 15:00 in a League Two contest shaped heavily by Football Park’s algorithm, which mirrors the analytical principles used in our San Lorenzo vs Velez Sarsfield Predictions, Lineups & Betting Tips template. With Cheltenham carrying a strong data-backed advantage and the highlighted betting tip being Cheltenham Win at 2.70, this preview explores the probabilities, historical context and projected match dynamics behind one of the most intriguing fixtures of the Boxing Day schedule.
Cheltenham have enjoyed consistent success in this fixture across the past decade, winning each of the last three meetings at home, including a dominant 2-0 victory in December 2023. Their ability to control momentum, restrict Shrewsbury’s supply lines and create high-value chances has been a recurring theme. Shrewsbury have not won away at Cheltenham since 2015, and trips to this ground have repeatedly exposed their defensive frailties and lack of attacking continuity. This historical pattern aligns closely with the algorithm’s strong lean toward a Cheltenham result.
Football Park’s model assigns Cheltenham a commanding 60% win probability, a substantial edge over Shrewsbury’s 13.3% likelihood. The forecasted 3-0 correct score underlines the hosts’ superior attacking output, with 1.70 expected home goals compared to Shrewsbury’s 0.90. Both teams to score sits at 66.7%, suggesting Shrewsbury may still find a breakthrough in transitional moments even if the broader flow of the match favours Cheltenham. With 2.60 expected match goals and strong probabilities backing over 1.5 and over 2.5 goals, this fixture is projected to develop with assertive attacking phases, especially in the late first half and early second half.
Football Park’s two highest-rated percentage selections for this matchup are:
With a 60% home-win probability and a flawless recent home record against Shrewsbury, this represents strong value. The model favours Cheltenham across all phases, projecting more possession, territorial dominance and shot quality.
The 66.7% BTTS probability reflects the likelihood of Shrewsbury carving out moments despite their underdog status. Their counter-attacking profile has historically produced chances even in fixtures they ultimately lose.
As always, bettors should stake responsibly and consider market movement approaching kick-off.
This fixture carries a projected 46.7% chance of being level at half-time, suggesting a measured opening period before Cheltenham’s superior depth and attacking structure assert control. Over 0.5 first-half goals stands at 73%, reinforcing expectations of early activity. The Completely-Suzuki Stadium has been a difficult venue for visiting sides, with Cheltenham leveraging home energy to produce sustained pressure and a high shot count. Broadcast access will be available through standard League Two domestic and international providers.
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