Grimsby vs Notts County Predictions, Lineups & Betting Tips

Grimsby vs Notts County Predictions, Lineups & Betting Tips

Grimsby and Notts County face off at Blundell Park on 13 December 2025 at 15:00 GMT in what promises to be one of League Two’s most explosive attacking fixtures of the weekend. Following Football Park’s analytical framework demonstrated in the San Lorenzo vs Velez Sarsfield Predictions, Lineups & Betting Tips model, this preview applies our algorithm to examine match probabilities, historical trends, and optimal betting opportunities.

With both clubs consistently involved in high-scoring fixtures and our predictive engine forecasting 3.50 match goals, the momentum going into this clash is heavily tilted toward an open contest led by transitional attacks and quick attacking sequences. Our Key Betting Tip is Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS at 2.05, reflecting the strong synergy between expected goal volume and the 60.00% BTTS probability underpinning this match. Notts County also enter with a 46.70% win likelihood, giving them a slight algorithmic edge in an environment that suits their attacking profile.

Grimsby vs Notts County Predictions

Football Park’s predictive model highlights Notts County as slight favourites, with a 46.70% chance of victory, compared to Grimsby’s 33.30%. While Notts County have dominated several recent meetings, the algorithm anticipates a far more unstable dynamic this time, driven by Grimsby’s improved attacking efficiency and home advantage.

The model forecasts 1.90 goals for Grimsby and 1.60 for Notts County, combining for a projected 3.50 goals. This makes it one of the highest expected totals in this League Two round. The 2-3 correct score further illustrates the model’s expectation of a frenetic, end-to-end match defined by overlapping attacks, wide overloads, and defensive frailties on both sides.

A notable factor is the high early-goal probability:

• Over 0.5 First Half Goals: 67.00%
• Over 1.5 First Half Goals: 47.00%

The algorithm signals a midfield battle that quickly opens up into wide-space attacking movements, favouring Notts County’s progressive passing sequences and Grimsby’s aggressive forward runs.

With BTTS rating at 60.00% and both defences projecting vulnerability in the transitional phase, there is strong statistical justification for backing multi-goal outcomes in this match.

Best Grimsby vs Notts County Betting Tips

Here are the top two highest-rated percentage-based Football Park selections for this fixture.

1. Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS @ 2.05

This represents the strongest combined-value selection, backed by:

• 70.00% probability for Over 2.5 Goals
• 60.00% BTTS probability
• A modelled 3.50 total goals
• A rivalry filled with high-output attacking matches

Supporting historical evidence:

• 2024: Grimsby 5-5 Notts County
• 2018: Grimsby 4-0 Notts County
• 2018: Grimsby 2-1 Notts County

These fixtures highlight an enduring pattern: when these two sides meet, volatility rises and goals follow. The current metrics amplify this expectation, making this selection Football Park’s standout tip.

2. Notts County Win @ 2.90

Despite playing away from home, Notts County hold the higher win probability and carry the following model-backed advantages:

• 46.70% win likelihood, exceeding market price expectations
• Historically favourable timeline results, including the recent 0-2 win in March 2025
• Stronger second-half performance cycle, matching their higher HT/FT Draw/Away probability
• Superior attacking efficiency in open-game scenarios

This selection benefits from value against bookmaker lines, especially in matches where the statistical spread suggests Notts County’s attack can outperform Grimsby’s defensive structure.

Grimsby vs Notts County Timeline

This matchup historically produces volatile, goal-heavy football, with Grimsby and Notts County generating expansive wide play and frequent long-range shooting phases. Several key fixtures in the timeline reinforce the match model’s expectations.

Recent and relevant meetings:

• 11 Mar 2025: Grimsby 0-2 Notts County
• 13 Jan 2024: Grimsby 5-5 Notts County
• 30 Oct 2021: Grimsby 0-1 Notts County
• 22 Dec 2018: Grimsby 4-0 Notts County
• 04 Sep 2018: Grimsby 2-1 Notts County

With five or more goals scored in several recent ties, these encounters highlight the structural tendencies that carry into the current prediction: both teams thrive in open matches and often trade goals in extended attacking phases.

Grimsby vs Notts County Matches

This section contextualises the fixture within broader match patterns that Football Park’s engine identifies as predictive indicators.

Match-trend insights:

• Grimsby’s home matches frequently include wide overloads and high shot volumes, boosting their expected goals beyond league averages.
• Notts County remain one of the division’s most transition-focused sides, generating fast-break opportunities at a high rate.
• Both clubs concede from central channels when pressed aggressively, increasing BTTS probabilities.
• Late-game scoring trends factor heavily into Notts County’s weighted win probability.

Call to Action

For more value-focused predictions across League Two and the wider EFL card, visit Football Park’s full predictions centre, where updated probabilities, betting edges, and deep-data projections are available throughout the week.

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