Gabriel Sutton's In Depth EFL Tips for the Opening Weekend

EFL specialist Gabriel Sutton sat down with Football Park to look at the opening weekend’s EFL action. He chose three games from each league and took us through his thoughts on the outcomes of the games as well as a few spicy longshots that you may want to have a look at. Here’s what he said:

Championship

Cardiff vs Sunderland

I’m backing the Black Cats at 6/4. I think they’ve got a really exciting young squad this year and I think the age profile of this group is such that they’re ready to really shoot up in their development.

Middlesborough vs Swansea City

My next game is Middlesborough at 4/5; they're at home to Swansea City. I think Michael Carrick’s side were only four points off the playoffs last season and that was with a lot of availability issues with injuries, with suspensions and with international call ups. For me, with a full squad to pick from, I think Middlesborough are going to be strong, I think they’re going to be among the promotion front runners, and I think they’re going to start with a victory over a Swansea side that have maybe struggled a little bit with a lack of investment.

Sheffield Wednesday vs Plymouth Argyle

For me, Sheffield Wednesday home win at 77/100. I think they enjoyed pretty much playoff form from about November last season. Danny Rohl inherited the worst ever Championship start and actually lost five of his first six last year but they were much improved in terms of performances and that eventually translated into results. I think it’s going to be too much for a Plymouth Argyle side that are going to try and play out from the back under Wayne Rooney, but I’m not quite sure Rooney was the right appointment for Argyle.

If you like each of those bets, you can take on the ACCA at 7/1.

League One

Birmingham City vs Reading

Birmingham City are heavy favourites both for the title in League One but also for their hosting of Reading at 5:30pm on Saturday. They’re 12/25 for those three points on the opening day. I think we’ve got a core of five or six top half Championship players coming into this squad in League One remaining from last season, we’ve made some excellent signings from across Europe, and we’ve also added a couple of League One specialists in Alfie May and Marc Leonard.

Stockport County vs Cambridge United

I also like Stockport County. They’re back in this level for the first time since 2009 and they’re favourites again to beat Cambridge United at 4/7. They made a statement signing in Louis Barry who they got on loan from Aston Villa after a successful loan last year prior to injury. I think Stockport are going to justify the favourites tag.

Crawley Town vs Blackpool

Blackpool are away to Crawley Town and I’m backing them to win at evens against the newly promoted Sussex outfit. I think Scott Lindsey’s done a great job at Crawley but they’ve only got three players who featured in the playoff final victory over Crewe Alexandra back in May because their squad has been ravaged and while they have been active in the transfer window, I don’t think their squad is going to be good enough to compete in League One, let alone against a very good League One side in Blackpool.

All of those games combined gives you a tasty 4/1.

League Two

Doncaster Rovers vs Accrington Stanley

Starting with Doncaster Rovers, I think they’re going to beat Accrington Stanley. They found sumptuous form at the back end of last season winning 10 games in a row before the final day to jump from 20th in early March to fifth. I think Grant McCann’s side are going to continue that form into this campaign even with the losses of a few key loanees that I’m confident that they have replaced. 4/7 Doncaster for me.

MK Dons vs Bradford City

Dividing opinion a bit Bradford City this year. I fancy them to finish in the bottom half but some people think they’re going to finish in the top 3 so that shows you that they’re going to divide opinion. I’m a bit concerned about the age profile of that squad, a lot of players in their 30s that I think could drop off this season whereas I really like MK Dons. They found top 3 form after Mike Williamson took charge in October and they’ve also added defensively with Laurence Maguire coming in, Sam Sherring and Luke Offord which is going to make them tougher in those big games. I think MK Dons are going to win, they’re 21/20.

Walsall vs Morecambe

Walsall are against a Morecambe side who have signed a lot of players this summer that wouldn’t have got EFL deals in different circumstances. Morecambe are in a perilous financial situation that has dictated really what they’ve been able to afford in this window whereas Walsall have been in a better position. They have been able to sign Connor Barrett who starred in the National League last season, they’ve also been able to sign Tommy Simkin on loan from Stoke who I rate very, very highly, and they’ve got a great midfield still despite the loss of Isaac Hutchinson. I’m happy to back Walsall here at 4/7 against a Morecambe side that I think are set for a season of struggle.

If you like each of those bets, you can get a combined ACCA for 4/1.

Longshots

If you fancy going a bit more of a daring shout in your betting this weekend, I’ve got three tips that might just tickle your fancy.

AFC Wimbledon vs Colchester United

The first comes in League Two. I think Colchester United could win at AFC Wimbledon. They look a bit underrated to me at 13/5, I’m a big fan of Danny Cowley, I think they’ve recruited really well when you look at the likes of Jack Payne who is one of the best creative players in this league as well. They’ve brought in some very solid, Danny Cowley centre-backs as well like Ben Goodliffe who was at Sutton United and so Colchester for me are a bit underrated.

Hull City vs Bristol City

I also see value in Bristol City because they’ve had a really good preparation for this season, they’ve got a really stable squad and they’ve added quick strikers in Fally Mayulu and from Sinclair Armstrong from QPR. They’ve got lots of pace in attack and I think they’re going to cause problems for Hull City who have had the best preparation. They’ve lost key players in Jacob Greaves and Jaden Philogene, they look a bit threadbare in terms of senior options in their squad and while they’ve got money to spend, I don’t think they’re going to get all the right players in, in time. For me, Bristol City at 11/5 as underdogs, bearing in mind that they weren’t far off Hull in the league last season, I think that’s good value.

Wrexham vs Wycombe Wanderers

I also think there’s value in betting against Wrexham this season. They’re such a global name that everyone wants to bet on Wrexham because they’re a club that people instinctively go to, but they are a newly promoted club, they’ve just won back-to-back promotions. It’s difficult for them to build a squad that’s ready for promotion from League One when they were only in the National League 12 months ago if you like. It’s all happened in a short space of time for Wrexham and I think they’ll have enough quality to be safe in mid-table, but I think for them to be going into games as clear favourites I think is a little bit unfair. Wycombe Wanderers only lost seven games in the second half of last season once they got players back from injury. They haven’t really lost anyone, I think they’ve got a reliable core, especially the likes of Jack Grimmer at the back and Josh Scowen in midfield. So for me, Wycombe Wanderers at 23/10 I’m very big on as well.

If those three bets tickle your fancy you can bet them as a treble at 37/1.

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