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Are Nottingham Forest Title Contenders?
Blogs

Are Nottingham Forest Title Contenders?

07/01/25 11:29

Are Nottingham Forest Title Contenders?

The 2024/25 Premier League season has thrown up a number of sizeable shocks, more so than in most other campaigns. Crystal Palace and West Ham are floundering despite seemingly impressive transfer windows, Chelsea were briefly in a title race, and Manchester United are at genuine risk of falling into a relegation battle.

However, the most shocking twist of the season without a shadow of a doubt has been Nottingham Forest’s remarkable rise to third in the league.

Prior to the opening day of the season, Opta simulated the upcoming Premier League season 10,000 times through a supercomputer. In these simulations, Forest finished in the bottom six 70% of the time, while straying into the top half in just 6%.

So when looking at the table following their Monday night demolition of Wolves, the majority of football fans still need to blink and squint to check they are not hallucinating. Forest lie in third place, joint on points with Arsenal, above Chelsea and Manchester City, and they sit just six points behind leaders Liverpool.

What is more, they have won six Premier League games in a row, including big wins against Man United, Aston Villa and Tottenham.

How has this happened? What has changed so drastically for a team that found itself in a relegation battle last May? And how much longer can they maintain their outstanding form … could they pull off a Leicester City?

The Headline Statistics

Firstly, we look at the numbers that have driven their surprise title charge most significantly. Their 19 goals conceded is the second best defensive record in the league, and only Arsenal and Liverpool have fewer defeats than Forest’s four.

And speaking of defeats, Nuno Espirito Santo’s team is the only side to have beaten a seemingly unplayable Liverpool since Arne Slot took over from Jurgen Klopp, a feat which sides such as Real Madrid, AC Milan, Manchester City and Bayer Leverkusen never came close to.

Individual performances have proven important as well; striker Chris Wood’s electric form in front of goal see’s him sit fifth in the golden boot standings with 12, while Belgian goalkeeper Matz Sels leads the clean sheet standings, two ahead of any competitor with 9 shutouts.

All of these numbers, both individually and collectively, lie close to or on top of their respective categories, testament to the superb work that Nuno Santo has done since his arrival in December 2023.

Interestingly, the Portuguese coach’s spell at Wolves was not too dissimilar to the start he has made at the City Ground. He guided his Wolves side to European football by finishing seventh in 2019, the season after getting promoted from the Championship.

While he took over Nottingham as a Premier League side, the rebuild from relegation candidates to top four chasers is not dissimilar to the enforced change needed for a Championship side to adapt to the Premier League.

An underrated Transfer Window?

However, in a rare modern day case of financial restraint, Forest have not reached the position they are in by spending big in the summer, nor did they get rid of a host of players.

Their most expensive signing was Elliot Anderson from Newcastle for £35 million, which is a significant outlay in itself. However, importantly, he was their only signing that cost more than £13 million.

Focusing on quality of player over quantity of money, Forest slowly built a side of players which had enough combined talent and top league experience to be a threat to any side. Nikola Milenkovic and Morato bolstered the backline for less than £25 million, while Ramon Sosa and Jota Silva added flair to the frontline for a combined £15 million.

The signing of James Ward-Prowse on loan from West Ham has also proved to be a stroke of genius, and young signings David Carmo and Marko Stamenic have both been sent on loan to Olympiakos to fast-track their development.

Meanwhile, their relatively few outgoings proved equally crucial. The departures of Orel Mangala, Odysseas Vlachodimos and Moussa Miakhate raked in a combined £66.5 million, allowing them to invest in high priority areas of their squad, while the releases of Harry Arter and Scott McKenna opened up more space in the wage budget for their new signings.

However, their most important, and perhaps least talked about signing didn’t come in the summer transfer window, or in any transfer window for that matter.

In approaching and eventually signing Nuno Santo to take over from the sacked Steve Cooper as head coach while the club was in relegation form, the Forest hierarchy unknowingly changed the entire future of their club.

How far could Nottingham Forest go?

While virtually no one is taking Nottingham Forest as serious title contenders yet, many were in the same mindset in early 2016, when Leicester City sat second behind Arsenal having been in danger of relegation at the back end of the previous season.

The Foxes would go on to shock world football by winning the Premier League in May, and if we compare their 2015/16 data set to present day Nottingham Forest’s, then the signs look good for Nuno’s side.

After 20 games, both sides have the exact same points total of 40, with Forest actually having won a game more than Claudio Ranieri’s title winning heroes. However, two extra defeats and three fewer draws see them on the same points tally.

Nottingham.pngLeicester.png

In their historic season, Leicester had scored 37 times in their 20 matches, but had shown vulnerability in defence, conceding 25 times. While less prolific in front of goal with 29 goals, Forest have conceded just 19 goals all season, conceding less than a goal per game.

Although it may seem cliched, it makes you think of Sir Alex Ferguson’s famous one liner: “Attack wins you games, but defence wins you titles.” Forest have curated a menacing defensive unit, and while many expected their resistance to crumble early in the season, they have maintained and even improved it past the halfway point of the campaign.

I may be cursing them with comparisons to Leicester, and it truly is too early to start talking about a potential title charge until the last weeks of the season, when the Premier League table has truly taken shape.

However, the tantalising possibility of such a momentous shock is intriguing, gripping and unthinkable at the same time, and it would be foolish not to at least give it some thought.

Forest’s next league fixture is their biggest game of the season. On Tuesday, they host leaders Liverpool, who with a game in hand on all the teams chasing them, are well and truly in the driving seat.

Should Forest somehow defeat the Reds for the second time this season, we will no longer be able to ignore their title credentials, however surprising that may be. While pre-season outsiders included Newcastle and Brighton, Forest appear, at least for this season, to be the best run club in England, and should they keep finding ways to win games, this season could go down in footballing history.

Benji Kosartiyer
Journalist
Harry Pascoe

Lead Writer

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09/01/25 19:30
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