Championship’s Top 6 Predicted By Data - Who Misses Out?

With the final weekend in the Championship just around the corner, there are still five teams battling for two playoff places and the title is still a toss up between Leeds United and Burnley. The second tier is difficult to predict at the best of times, but with everything to play for at the top of the table, right now it feels like rolling a dice. Even so, the statisticians have been looking at the final fixtures and using simulation models based on xG and fixture difficulty to predict the final top six.

1st: Leeds United (98 points)

Strangely, the predictor has Leeds winning the league, but drawing their final game of the season. They travel to struggling Plymouth Argyle on Saturday, who themselves need a win, and a dramatic swing in goal difference, to stay in the league. The stats point towards an easy Leeds win, as they have the best xG in the league with 84.57, and are yet still overperforming that number. Meanwhile Plymouth have the worst xG against in the division.

However, Plymouth are currently in a good run of form, losing just two of their last seven games and were last beaten at home near the beginning of March. Survival for them is mathematically still possible, but goal difference means that they are more than likely already relegated, so they might just roll over for Leeds, however for pride’s sake, I think they’ll go down swinging.

Chance to end the season on a high. 💚

The boss previews Leeds: 👇

— Plymouth Argyle FC (@Argyle) May 2, 2025

One thing that might go in Plymouth’s favour when the two sides meet this weekend is the opposing playstyles of the teams. Leeds have the highest average possession in the league while Plymouth are perfectly fine with just sitting back and soaking up the pressure. This was most evident when they beat Liverpool in the FA Cup back in February. If they are able to replicate that performance against Leeds, then things might be very interesting at the top of the table.

2nd: Burnley (98 points)

If Leeds can still win the league even after drawing on the final day, that would mean that something would have to go wrong at Turf Moor as well. The Clarets host Millwall on the final day, who themselves have an outside chance of finishing inside the top six, however they would need a win to do so and for Coventry City to lose. The prediction model has Burnley to draw with Millwall on the final day, which is not too much of a shock, seeing as the East London club won the last time these two sides met back in November.

Scott Parker’s side really likes to keep the ball, playing safe, robust and hard to beat football, however they take very few risks with it. Millwall are almost the complete opposite. Of all the teams in the Championship, The Lions attempt the highest proportion of forward passes, with nearly 45% of their passes heading towards the opposition goal. The directness in attack catches out a lot of teams, but it was a set piece that beat Burnley the last time they met.

Super Cooper! 🦸‍♂️

⏮️ The big defender was the #Millwall matchwinner against Burnley back in November! pic.twitter.com/CjyY92T68u

— Millwall FC (@MillwallFC) May 1, 2025

On top of that, Millwall are in excellent form. Despite the fact that the playoff dream is a far-fetched one, they have still managed five wins from their last six games, beating the likes of Sheffield United and Middlesbrough. The stats this season suggest that they are the most bland team in the league, scoring one and conceding one per game on average, but that style of football has led them to a strong finish this season. There is a real chance that they could get something from the game, handing the Championship title to Leeds, their sworn enemy, but Burnley will be defensively solid as always. So maybe a final day 0-0 bore draw?

3rd: Sheffield United (92 points)

A third placed finish for Sheffield United was confirmed some time ago, but Blades fans will be pleased to know that the prediction model has given them a win on the final day, after a few weeks of torment. It has been a dreadful month for United, but that should come as no surprise, as they were massively overperforming their xG against for most of the season. Allowing sides to have nearly 11 shots per game on average was not going to be a viable tactic, especially in a league as close as the Championship, and it eventually came back to bite them.

Their final league game this season is against Blackburn Rovers who, despite a recent run of good form, have been unable to push for the playoffs. It seems as if, during this campaign, Blackburn have been going through periods of excellent form followed by terrible form and back again. Between the 22nd of February and the 8th of April, they didn’t win a single game, but since then they have been victorious in the next four in a row. The prediction model believes that they’ll lose the next one, but the result doesn’t really affect either team.

4th: Sunderland (79 points)

Like Sheffield United, Sunderland’s result on the final day of the season does nothing to change where they’ll end up in the table. They are currently on 76 points, 13 behind the Blades and nine ahead of Bristol City in fifth. They face Queens Park Rangers on the final day, and are predicted a victory from that fixture. The Black Cats are in terrible form, having not won in their last five attempts, but even so, their recent head to head record against tomorrow’s opponents is impressive, having not lost since their return to the Championship.

The idea of going to Sunderland matches vs me when I’m at a Sunderland match pic.twitter.com/eAsq8iLoCf

— alfie evans (@alfievans) May 2, 2025

Sunderland’s xG statistics are actually quite poor compared to the current league position, which suggests that they are overperforming and that maybe their current dip in form is actually just the reality of their style of football catching up with them. For too long they were reliant on defensive solidity, but that showed during November and December where they dominated a number of games but were unable to find a winning goal, drawing five in a row. They need to win against QPR on the final day, not for their league position, but instead for their confidence going into the playoffs.

5th: Bristol City (70 points)

Bristol City are in a good position to qualify for the playoffs, however even with just one game left, their work is still not done. They are currently in fifth place, one point ahead of Millwall down in seventh, and just three above ninth placed Middlesbrough. Their rise into the playoff places this season has been slow but purposeful. They have a defined playstyle that they stick to, of attacking football, creating numerous chances and playing forward.

They have attempted the third most passes into the final third in the league this season, and while their goal numbers might not reflect that, they aren’t underperforming or overperforming their xG massively. The stats suggest that Bristol City have just been consistently average for the majority of the season, which has led them into a good position to qualify for the playoffs.

If Bristol City go up and Preston go down what happens? Does the championship just not exist next year? Does the world end?

— Sam Bird (@SamBirdyy) April 26, 2025

They face Preston North End on the final day, and while they are a good side, Bristol City have lost just once in their last eight meetings, winning 3-1 away from home earlier this season. Preston’s terrible form recently has meant that this game, so often a meaningless battle in the middle of the Championship, will now have major ramifications for both ends of the table. Preston currently sit just one point above the relegation zone, so if this prediction comes true and they are defeated by Bristol City, they better hope that Portsmouth do them a favour and beat Hull.

6th: Coventry City (69 points)

What could have been an exciting final day is predicted to finish the same way it started, with the whole top six staying in the same places. What started off as a poor season for Coventry could still end in promotion, as the prediction model has them finishing in sixth place and just squeezing into the playoffs. Their final game this season is a big one, as they face Middlesbrough, who themselves have a very slight chance of leapfrogging them in the table.

Coventry are one of the league’s biggest underperformers this season, as their expected points has them in third in the league table, above Sunderland and Sheffield United. They have had the second best xG in the league this season, however are behind the likes of Middlesbrough and Norwich City when it comes to actual goals scored and have also been underperforming their xG against by a significant amount too. This season should have been a lot easier for them than it has been, but injuries, a change in style and some poor individual performances has made the final day so crucial to their season.

Last time out against Boro. 💭

Josh Eccles secured a 3-0 win. 🖤pic.twitter.com/vUSPs8AGmb

— Coventry City (@Coventry_City) May 2, 2025

Coventry were 3-0 winners when they met Middlesbrough away from home earlier this season, so the head to head is in their favour, however they do have a giant injury list. There will be at least four starters out for Coventry with a further three players doubtful. Frank Lampard’s side have been predicted a win here, however to make that happen, they will have to dig deep. Their last two matches have been very disappointing defeats, so a massive turn around is needed.