Countdown to the Split: Celtic, Rangers, Hearts and Motherwell — Who Will Blink First?

Hearts’ loss to Rangers at the weekend, Celtic’s near scare against Kilmarnock, and Motherwell quietly going about their business have made what is shaping up to be the most exciting Scottish Premiership title race in recent memory even tighter.

With 11 games remaining — six of them before the split — here’s a look at those fixtures prior to the split for all four sides vying for the title.

Hearts

It’s only fitting to start with the league leaders. Hearts’ historic season has earned plenty of plaudits already, but now it’s crunch time. To turn this campaign from memorable to historic these next six games before the split are vital.

Hearts’ pre-split fixtures:

• Falkirk (H)
• Aberdeen (H)
• Kilmarnock (A)
• Dundee (H)
• Livingston (A)
• Motherwell (H)

On paper, Hearts have the easiest run-in of the four title contenders. Four of their six fixtures are against bottom-six sides, and they have four home games, with only two away trips to the bottom two sides, Kilmarnock and Livingston.

Home advantage has been key for Hearts all season. They are the only team unbeaten at home this season, and it’s noticeable how they consistently find a way to snatch late winners and grind out results at home.

Unlike their title rivals, Hearts only have the league to focus on. Rangers, Celtic, and Motherwell all remain in the Scottish Cup, and Celtic also have European fixtures to balance. Hearts’ sole focus on the league can be a huge positive — it reduces wear on their already injury-hit squad and allows for more preparation time between matches.

However, the week-long breaks between games could come with problems. Instead of moving swiftly from match to match, Hearts have time to overthink, which could prove detrimental in a tense title race. It’s a fine line to balance.

Falkirk (H) are a difficult challenge. Their focus is mainly on catching Hibs and chasing Europe. Falkirk fear no one and play an expansive style regardless of opponent. Hearts should benefit from this approach — rather than sitting deep and forcing Hearts to break them down, Falkirk will engage, which suits Hearts. A win here would be a statement reply from Sundays defeat.

Aberdeen (H) and Dundee (H) are both still fighting relegation playoffs, but with games in hand and a points buffer, they should be safe. After that their seasons lack purpose. Hearts should be able to secure six points here.

Livingston (A) seem so lifeless. Even with Marvin Bartley stepping up as manager, they remain winless and seem resigned to relegation. Their squad lacks Premiership quality, and Hearts should feel comfortable claiming all three points.

Kilmarnock (A) could be trickier than it first appears. Under Neil McCann, Kilmarnock have improved, particularly at home, with wins over Aberdeen and St Mirren and a near-upset of Celtic. They still have something to play for, so Hearts will need to stay sharp.

Motherwell (H) are obviously the standout challenge. Calm, composed, and growing in confidence, Motherwell focus on themselves and remain unfazed by the surrounding pressure. While other teams panic in big matches, Motherwell thrive, making them the most likely side to trip up Hearts before the split.

Point Prediction: 13/18 My prediction is a loss to Motherwell and a draw against either Falkirk or Kilmarnock, leaving Hearts with 13 points from a possible 18. The question remains: will that be enough to keep them top at the split?

Celtic

The defending champions seem to be lacking the cutting edge this season — a strange observation, given they scored two late winners this week. Yet at their core, they don’t have the same spark that has defined previous title-winning campaigns. What those late winners do show, however, is that they still carry a sense of inevitability.

Celtic’s pre-split fixtures:

• Hibs (H)
• Rangers (A)
• Aberdeen (A)
• Motherwell (H)
• Dundee United (A)
• Dundee (A)
• St Mirren (H)

Celtic benefit from having a manager who has “been there and done it.” Under Martin O’Neill, performances have not dazzled, but the results have delivered. The squad contains winners — players who know how to handle pressure and navigate the moments that are going to decide this title race.

Of all four sides, Celtic are the only team with genuine title-winning pedigree, both on the pitch and in the dugout. That experience is crucial not just for managing the games themselves, but also for handling the intense media scrutiny and off-field pressures that come with chasing another championship.

Hibs (H) likely comes at a good time for Celtic. David Gray’s side have been uninspiring in 2026 and appear to be at a crossroads, with their squad shaping up for a possible refresh next season. Whether Gray will be the man to lead that change remains to be seen. It may be a tight affair, but Celtic should have enough quality to secure three points at home.

Rangers (A) looks a very tough challenge. At the moment Rangers appear the stronger side. The Old Firm is never straightforward — surprises can always happen — but Celtic have lacked a sense of hunger even in the big matches this season. As a result, a win at Ibrox feels like asking a lot.

Motherwell (H) is Celtic’s third straight tough fixture. Motherwell were one of the sides to defeat Celtic during the Wilfred Nancy era and came close to another shock at Parkhead earlier this season, only losing to a stoppage-time goal from Maeda. Despite that, Celtic’s home record against Motherwell is impressive: 42 meetings and just two defeats. This feels like a swing game — a win could put Celtic firmly on the path to the title, while a loss could see them fall behind the pack.

Dundee United (A), Aberdeen (A) Dundee (A), and St Mirren (H) all look like winnable fixtures for Celtic. While there may still be moments of tension and the occasional late goal, Celtic have more than enough quality to handle these three sides efficiently.

Points Prediction: 15/21

The late winners have to come to an end at some point and it this just feels like this isnt Celtics year. I see Rangers winning the Old Firm and Motherwell coming away with a massive result at Celtic Park.

Rangers

There would have been Rangers supporters who feared their title hopes were gone after the position Russell Martin left them in, but Rangers are now well and truly back in the race.

Their domestic form under Danny Rohl has been elite, and after Sunday’s statement win they look to be moving full steam ahead in pursuit of Hearts — and the title itself.

Ranger's pre-split fixtures:

• Livingston (A)
• Celtic (H)
• St Mirren (A)
• Aberdeen (H)
• Dundee United (H)
• Falkirk (A)

Of the four sides in the title race, Rangers are the team that feel like things are clicking at the right time. With momentum at their backs, they look — despite still being behind mathematically — like favourites for the title in my view.

Sunday felt like a statement. Results have come under Rohl, but performances have not always matched them. This time, however, the performance reflected the scoreline, and it looked like a Rangers side playing with genuine swagger.

Although they remain in the Scottish Cup, the lack of European football could prove to be a major advantage. Their European campaign was effectively over early and, for much of the season, it seemed more like a distraction than an opportunity. With fewer fixtures Rangers can focus fully on continuing the rhythm they've found.

Their biggest issue in the run-in may not be tactical — it could be mental. Believing their own hype, getting carried away, and losing the edge that has driven this recent surge is a danger. Staying grounded will be crucial.

Livingston (A), St Mirren (A), Aberdeen (H) and Dundee United (H) all feel like fixtures Rangers should be winning. Such is the depth of their squad now that even if injuries hit, they have enough quality to rotate and still pick up results.

Celtic (H) is never straightforward. As mentioned earlier, Old Firm matches always have the potential to throw up surprises, but at Ibrox — and with the current form of both sides — Rangers have to be given the edge.

Falkirk (A) feels like the fixture where a potential slip-up could come. No side has it easy when they travel to Falkirk. They press high, play with real intensity, and make life a nightmare for visiting teams. The home crowd will be red hot, as it has been all season, and Rangers will need to be fully focused. Any lapse in concentration and Falkirk have the quality to punish them.

Points Prediction: 16/18

I think Rangers only drop points to Falkirk prior to the split and leapfrog the rest to the top spot.

Motherwell

Dream season this, style of play that — Motherwell’s calmness and unwavering self-belief, regardless of opponent, is what impresses me most.

They may be on the edge of the title race, but they cannot be counted out. Unbeaten in 2026, they aren’t exactly flying under the radar because everyone has taken notice of their football. What is being overlooked, though, is just how close they remain to the top.

Motherwell also have a game in hand on Hearts, and if they win it, they would move to within seven points of the Jambos — a gap that feels gettable.

Motherwell's pre-split fixtures:

• St Mirren (A)
• Dundee United (H)
• Dundee (A)
• Celtic (A)
• Hibs (H)
• Falkirk (H)
• Hearts (A)

It would be no surprise to me if Motherwell took the full 21 from 21 in this stretch — that’s how impressive they’ve been.

They boast the best defensive record in the league and also have the league’s top scorer in Tawanda Maswanhise. They aren’t just grinding out results either — they are controlling games.

I’ve watched Motherwell in person several times this season, but two matches stand out: the 1-0 defeat to Rangers and the 2-0 win over Livingston. In both games, Motherwell dominated.

Against Rangers, even putting the penalty controversy aside, they created more than enough chances to take something from the match. Against Livingston, they brushed them aside with ease.

So what are the drawbacks?

The obvious drawback is that they haven’t “been there and done it” in a title race. But neither have Hearts — and much of this Rangers side. The way Motherwell play, it genuinely feels like they don’t care about labels. If anything, the pressure seems to sit on everyone else.

Managers and players alike would love to be the team who finally “figures out” Motherwell — to claim their scalp and be the ones who end the hype. But week after week, Motherwell keep proving they’re more than a good story.

And maybe it’s lazy analysis, but it still feels like there’s a surprising defeat in them somewhere along the way. Surely.

St Mirren (A), Dundee United (H), Dundee (A) and Falkirk (H) are the fixtures where, despite all the praise I’ve given Motherwell, they could realistically drop points. As per my “lazy analysis” earlier, it just feels like they’ll slip up in one of these games. That said, good luck to any of those sides in being the team that actually manages it.

Hibs (H) is intriguing. I saw Motherwell play Hibs earlier in the season, and even away from home they edged the performance. At Fir Park, you would expect them to raise their level again. However, it was clear that Hibs are better suited to playing on the counter rather than being asked to dominate possession. While Motherwell won 2-0 last time at home, the red card to Hanley was a major factor, so I can see Hibs taking something this time around.

Celtic (A) and Hearts (A) feel like the two fixtures that could shape the title race. Motherwell go into both with no real pressure — the responsibility lies entirely on Celtic and Hearts to beat them. That’s exactly where Motherwell thrive, and I can see them capitalising on nerves and tension in both camps.

Points Prediction: 16/21

I can see Motherwell dropping points in the “smaller” fixtures — a draw against one of St Mirren, Dundee United or Falkirk — and surprisingly losing Hibs. However, I genuinely believe they have the quality and composure to win the two biggest matches against Celtic and Hearts.

Predicted Table Heading Into the Split

1. Rangers - 71 Points
2. Hearts - 70 Points
3. Celtic - 69 Points
4. Motherwell - 63 Points

I have Rangers jumping into first heading into the split, with Hearts only a point adrift. Despite Motherwell’s outstanding form, the gap still feels just slightly too big for them to completely close on the teams above.

There has never been this much debate over who wins the Scottish Premiership in my lifetime, so hopefully the excitement continues right through to the final day.

P.S. Someone please double check my very basic maths.