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How does xG affect the Premier League table?
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How does xG affect the Premier League table?

07/03/25 18:19

How does xG affect the Premier League table?

The 2024/25 Premier League campaign has been one of the most entertaining in recent times. With unexpected competition for European places, major under-achievers and freak results.

In this piece we will be taking a closer look into what the Premier League table would be based on xG and the effect it has on a number of clubs.

Chelsea

Chelsea are the first team to make a huge jump once xG is factored in, as Enzo Maresca’s side moved from 5th in the standings to 2nd. Despite being the third highest scoring team in the Premier League with 52 goals, Chelsea are actually underperforming by 5.08.

Based on the chances created the Blues are expected to have scored 57.08 goals this season, trailing only Liverpool (67.91) according to understat.

An example of Chelsea’s failure to convert chances this season would be the 2-0 loss to Ipswich Town on the 30th December 2024. Chelsea would have 20 shots towards the Ipswich net in this fixture with just five on target. Despite this Maresca’s side generated an xG of 1.45 but failed to breach the Ipswich defence.

A similar trend can be found in Chelsea's 0-0 draw with Everton, having had 12 shots, five on target and generating an xG of 1.28.

Nicolas Jackson ranks joint fourth in the Premier League for most big chances missed with 12.

Bournemouth

Bournemouth have been one of the biggest stories in the Premier League this season. Having finished 12th the previous campaign, Andoni Iraola’s side currently sit 7th in the table - just four points behind 4th place and a spot in the UEFA Champions League qualification places.

Whilst in the midst of the most successful season in the history of the football club, the underlying numbers suggest that the Cherries could have been in an even better position than they are currently.

Bournemouth have scored 45 goals during the 2024/15 season, ranking them eighth among all clubs. However, an xG of 55.16 shows that Iraola’s side have created another chances to rank 3rd in the table.

The Cherries have underperformed by a margin of 10.16 goals, the second biggest differential of all Premier League sides.

Bournemouth’s 1-0 loss to Leicester City despite generating an xG of 1.90 is an example of how the Cherries have happened to amass such a differential.

Tottenham Hotspur

Tottenham Hotspur have had a disappointing season to say the least. With expectations of European football and a potential end to their 17 year trophy drought, Ange Postecoglou’s side sit 13th in the Premier League, having been knocked out of almost every competition with the exception of the UEFA Europa League - trailing 1-0 on aggregate to AZ Alkmaar.

However, Spurs move up nine places in the table to 4th once xG is factored in. Spurs are one of the few teams that have over performed their xG this campaign.

With an expected goals tally of 49.98, Tottenham have managed to score 53 goals - the second most in the Premier League.

Tottenham have scored four or more goals on six occasions this season but failed to register an xG of higher than 2.33.

Spurs managed an xG of 2.33 in their 5-0 victory against Southampton. They also registered an xG of 1.46 in a 4-1 victory against Ipswich Town.

Crystal Palace

Having started the season in the relegation places and struggling for form, Crystal Palace have turned things around sitting 12th in the table - eight points behind a potential European spot.

With impressive wins such as a 4-1 victory against Aston Villa, 3-1 derby win versus Brighton and 2-0 win away to Manchester United. Crystal Palace have amassed 47.28 expected goals, moving from 12th in the current Premier League table to 7th.

Crystal Palace also registered the largest differential in xG to goals scored, having scored just 35 goals at this stage. A difference of +12.28.

In a 2-0 loss to Fulham, Crystal Palace managed to generate an xG of 1.43.

Nottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest are the surprise outfit of the season. After narrowly escaping relegation in 2023/24, Forest find themselves right in the middle in the battle for UEFA Champions League qualification.

Currently sitting 3rd in the Premier League table, Nuno Espírito Santo has managed to win two Manager of the Month awards. A vast contrast to the start of the campaign, where he was the favourite to be the first manager sacked.

Forest take the biggest fall down the table as they go from 3rd in the current Premier League standings to 13th. Nottingham Forest have scored 44 goals from an xG of 41.67.

The biggest outlier in Nottingham Forest’s season is the 7-0 dismantling of Brighton & Hove Albion. Nuno’s side registered an xG of 3.11, scoring seven goals from nine shots on target.

Chris Wood is a huge reason for Nottingham Forest’s fairytale campaign. The New Zealand international has scored 18 goals from 12.32 expected goals.

Liverpool find themselves top of both tables as the Reds have scored 66 goals from an xG of 67.91. Southampton also remain in the bottom three but not at the foot of the table.

The Saints rise from 20th in the Premier League to 18th based on expected goals. Southampton have scored 19 goals from an xG of 30.76 - a differential of 11.76.

Benji Kosartiyer
Journalist
Reece Coughlan

Writer

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