The Premier League Table That Tells A Very Different Story

This season’s Premier League has been one bringing unique stories across the twenty teams. From seeing some of our presumed succeeders fail dramatically, on top of witnessing underdogs giant-kill their way into a top half finish – there has been a tale to be told for many teams.

However, is the league table ranked in the order it necessarily should be? Now while statistics can never outperform results, this season’s Premier League expected points (xPTS) table uncovers some hard truths that many of us were completely oblivious to. Here are a few of them.

(Premier League 2024/25 xPTS Table: by Understat.com)

Bournemouth For Champions League?

There is no disputing that AFC Bournemouth have enjoyed another fantastic season in their rise through England’s top division. Sat in 12th spot with 50 points, holding their own against some of England’s strongest forces – it has certainly been a success. However, any Bournemouth fan would be desperate to know where they went wrong after taking one glimpse at the expected points table.

We've got the fifth best away record in the @premierleague this season 👊

Here's the boss on our away performances 👇 pic.twitter.com/hiM42gzSxj

— AFC Bournemouth 🍒 (@afcbournemouth) May 2, 2025

This term, the Cherries are expected to be in third position, which would honour their expected 59.20 points with a spot in next year’s Champions League campaign – something that would have been astronomical in the history of AFC Bournemouth. Unfortunately, that is not the case.

A number screaming out from the expected points table is Bournemouth’s goals. Andoni Iraola’s men have netted 53 goals this season, yet their xG of 66.49 heavily suggests that the Cherries have underperformed in the attacking department. Bournemouth have averaged 5.5 shots on target per match this season, reciprocated with a 9.9% shot conversion rate – one of the lowest in the league. Furthermore, a total of 62 big chances missed has been a key contributor to Bournemouth’s inflated xG, highlighting some critical areas of improvement on the south coast.

(Premier League Stats: by FotMob)

Fortunate Forest

Nottingham Forest have dropped many jaws this season with their Champions League chasing campaign. Sitting in sixth with 60 points is something nobody would have backed beforehand, especially after the Reds retreated from a 17th-finishing season the year prior. The famous City Ground has reminisced on old times this term when hunting down a spot European football, flooding back memories of their 1979 and 1980 European Cup triumphs. However, has their progress this season been justified or have Nuno’s men struck gold?

According to the expected points table, Forest should be down in 14th place, almost 17 points worse off with an expected 43.38 points. Now while a lot has been spoken about Nottingham Forest’s vibrant attack this season, through the development of Morgan Gibbs-White, Callum Hudson-Odoi, Anthony Elanga and Chris Wood, the Reds should hand a lot of the plaudits to their defensive excellence. Their mastery to concede only 41 goals despite an xG against of 50.19, demonstrates just how solid Nuno’s men have been at the back – bolstered with their 13 clean sheets also (second highest in the league). Ultimately, this has helped push Nottingham Forest further on than they suggestively should be.

(Premier League Stats: by FotMob)

Newcastle Over-Performing?

An expected points table would never dismantle Newcastle United from cloud nine after the Magpies secured their first major trophy in 70 years. However, disregarding their Carabao Cup success story, Eddie Howe’s men have seriously over-performed upon first glance of this table.

WE ARE NEWCASTLE UNITED

CARABAO CUP WINNERS#wedontdoquiet pic.twitter.com/83eJqEr3gb

— Newcastle United (@NUFC) March 16, 2025

The Magpies have only just dropped to fourth spot after Man City’s victory last night, although staying in third for long spells of the season has made the campaign a brilliant one in Tyne and Wear. With the additional Champions League spot gaping in the top flight, Newcastle look set to secure a place in the competition one more. Despite this, the expected points table has them down in seventh, on 54.65 points – compared to their existing 62 points. They have outperformed their xG against, by letting in 6.41 less goals than what was expected of them. In the long run, this has helped Newcastle to claim league points which were not necessarily allocated to them – bolstering their charge Champions League football.

Manchester United and Spurs’ Unmerited Season

Both Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur’s dispersement down towards the bottom of the Premier League table has been a sight adored by rival fans, as they ride along the bandwagon of teases and irony. Whilst there is no glossing over either team’s season of horror, it may not be wild to imply that both teams have come severely unlucky throughout the forgettable campaign.

🚨 NEW:

“Spurs are hovering ever closer to 17th place sitting above the drop zone which is disgusting, it’s disgraceful. It’s absolutely not where Tottenham Hotspur should be.”@AlasdairGold 🥇 pic.twitter.com/eti8P9DXGF

— Spurs Connect (@Spurs_Connect) April 14, 2025

Although neither team’s season performance warrants a top-half finish, the xPTS table has Spurs in 11th position and Man United in 12th – compared to their respective 16th and 14th. With four games remaining, both teams should have picked up many more points than they have done by now. Spurs are expected to have amounted to 47.90 points – just over 10 more points than they have done with Ange Postecoglou. As for Man United, they should have tallied up over eight points more, with an expectation of 47.26.

It has been hard to lay a finger on where both teams have gone wrong, as the expected points table negligibly alters their goals scored and conceded totals. Although, both sides have lost many games by one goal margins this season, which may have played a huge part in how they have each dropped so many points.

Defeat in north London.#MUFC || #TOTMUN

— Manchester United (@ManUtd) February 16, 2025

Worst Promoted Sides In History?

It would be remarkably difficult to sugarcoat the inadequate seasons of each Ipswich Town, Leicester City and Southampton. The three had only just made the jump back to the top tier last summer, as the short stay sees them all fall back down again. Southampton currently have 11 points in the Premier League; the same tally as Derby County’s record lowest points total in 2008. While Southampton have four more fixtures in attempt to surpass that forbidden record, the three already-relegated sides only have a combined points total of 50 points. To put this into context, if all three joined as one, they still would not even be scraping a top-half finish in the league – as AFC Bournemouth in 10th currently have 50 points. Furthermore, these three strugglers are right on track to break the record for the lowest combined points tally; they would steal the title from last season’s bottom three, who secured a total of 66 points – showcasing how difficult the Premier League has become for newly promoted teams.

(Premier league Relegated Teams 2023/24)

Despite their disaster season’s, it would be fair to suggest that each of them deserves more points than they have picked up. The xPTS table suggests that Ipswich should have secured 22.88 points (1.88 more than they are on), Leicester 22.29 (4.29 more), and Southampton 21.27 (a staggering 10.27 more). Narrowly behind Tottenham, 10.27 is the second highest points jump on this table, highlighting even more errors at Southampton’s flawed season. The Saints xG is 11.30 higher than what they have produced, with their xG against 10.07 higher than their execution also. So, although they maybe should have found the back of the net more times this season, they also should have conceded more; either way, they are destined for relegation xPTS table or no xPTS table.