Last Stop Before the World Cup: The African Nations Still Fighting for Their Place on the Global Stage
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Last Stop Before the World Cup: The African Nations Still Fighting for Their Place on the Global Stage

Last Stop Before the World Cup: The African Nations Still Fighting for Their Place on the Global Stage

With both Egypt and Algeria sealing their tickets to the United States next summer earlier this week, joining Morocco and Tunisia, five more nations will be waiting to book their own spots as the group stage finishes at the end of this international break.

Egypt’s victory in matchday nine against Djibouti and Algeria’s comfortable win over Somalia meant that both teams have confirmed their spots at the top of groups A and G respectively.

With just one week left of the group stage for the CAF 2026 World Cup qualifiers, here we guide you through the groups and explain which teams can still qualify and how.



How Many Nations from Africa can Qualify?

Before we take you through the current group stage permutations, firstly we will explain how many can qualify and how they can do so.

In the African Confederation there are 54 nations, meaning these nations are spread out into nine groups of six teams.

Within each group, teams play each other twice – home and away – with the winner of each group advancing to the World Cup finals over the Atlantic in the summer – with Egypt, Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia having already confirmed their spots.

Therefore, there are five spots to play for to gain automatic qualification for the World Cup through the remaining groups.

In addition to this, there is also one place available for the “best” second-placed nation to enter the inter confederation playoffs alongside nations from the AFC (1), CONMEBOL (1), OFC (1), and CONCACAF (2) regions.

Of the nine second placed teams, the top four will go into a CAF playoff with the winner advancing to the stage mentioned above. In this stage, all teams will be placed in a single-elimination bracket based off their FIFA rankings. This interconfederation playoff will be played in November.

From there, the four lowest-ranked nations will meet in a “quarter-final” with the winners of these games advancing to play the two highest-ranked nations in what would then be a straight knockout in a semi-final, final format with the overall victor advancing to the World Cup finals.

By now, we hope you understand how nations can qualify for the World Cup, so let’s dive into each group and have a closer look.


IMG_0209.jpeg

(This Table is from ESPN – This Will be a Point of Reference for Every Ranking of the Second-Placed Nations)

In this section, all data and information are correct as of Friday 10 October, 16:24 BST


Group A – Egypt (Q)

So far in Group A, it is Egypt (23) who have qualified as group winners with just one match left to play. The table is effectively all but complete too, with Burkina Faso (18) having already locked in second place. As it stands, they actually sit just outside the top four on the 2nd place rankings despite their impressive record. This is because when it comes to the 2nd place rankings, the results of the side which finishes sixth (in this case, Djibouti) are removed from record.

This means that their final group fixture on Sunday at home to fifth-placed Ethiopia (9) is a must-win if they hope to secure qualification to the CAF playoff, although their fate will not be in their hands.

As for the remaining group participants – Sierra Leone (12), Guinea-Bissau (10), Ethiopia, and Djibouti (1) – their qualification campaigns are officially over.


Group B – Senegal and DR Congo Battle It Out for Top Spot

In Group B, Senegal (21) and Democratic Republic of the Congo (19) are currently separated by just two points heading into the final matchday. Moreover, with Sudan six points back on 13 points, the former two have locked in a top two spot at worst. It is highly unlikely that Senegal miss out on the playoffs on second place rankings as they will only need a draw against fifth-placed Mauritania (7) at home on Monday to secure safe passage to the World Cup.

DR Congo’s path is a little trickier as they will have to overcome third-placed Sudan at home on Monday themselves to secure their place in the interconfederation playoff.

As for Sudan, Togo (7), Mauritania, and South Sudan (4), their campaigns are over.



Group C – Four Sides with It All to Play for

Moving on to Group C now, and this could be the closest group overall in terms of the fact that each of Benin (14), South Africa (14), Nigeria (11), or Rwanda (11) could still take top spot and the group’s automatic qualification place.

With each side having two matches left as of the time of writing, there are still some massive fixtures with everything at stake; firstly, Rwanda currently sits in fourth and still have to host Benin before travelling to South Africa on Tuesday.



Nigeria also stands on 11 points, visiting Lesotho (9) on Friday before hosting Benin in potentially a qualification match. As for South Africa, they have the short trip to neighbours Zimbabwe (5) before hosting Rwanda – they do have 14 points, however, so one strong win and a draw could be enough to earn them a playoff spot at least.

Lastly, Benin, who currently sits top of the standings on goal difference with 14 points, has the toughest road of the lot. A visit to Rwanda is followed by an away match in Nigeria which is again sure to be the game to seal their respective fates.

The only issue for these sides with the group so fiercely contested, is that the second placed side currently resides outside the top four rankings' places, meaning that the more wins the better amongst these four nations if they want two teams advancing to their respective paths to the World Cup finals.

So therefore, with Zimbabwe and Lesotho already out, their matchup on the final matchday means we have two absolute thrillers in store on the final day.


Group D – Minnows One Victory Away from History

Cape Verde Islands (20) are one victory away from securing their maiden qualification to a World Cup finals. Their matches have not been pretty, having scored just 13 goals throughout their nine games so far, however, their amazing journey and draw in Libya (15) means that all they need is to achieve a win over a winless Eswatini (3) to secure a spot straight to the World Cup.

Elsewhere in the group, Cameroon (18) is the chasing side, needing victory at home to Angola (11) in the final group game, while requiring Cape Verde to slip up in order to deny them from history. The good news for the Indomitable Lions, is that goal differential is incredibly in their favour meaning they now need to only worry about results in order to qualify for the interconfederation playoffs.

While Angola, Mauritius (5), and Eswatini are all out of contention, it is still possible that Libya can qualify for playoff, although they will require heavy and quite remarkable score lines in order to achieve a big enough swing to topple Cameroon.



Group E – Morocco (Q)

The Atlas Lions (21) qualified in record time, winning all seven of their matches so far, and with a match at home to the Republic of the Congo (1) left, Morocco will most likely steamroll CAF qualification with a 100% record.

With Morocco having already taken top spot, only second place is left to fight for. The position currently stands with Niger (12), and although their match in Zambia (9) will decide who finishes runners-up, it is only Niger who can mathematically qualify for the confederation playoffs.

There is no doubt the Zambian players will want to do the nation proud, however, regardless of the result, it will come in vain. The current scenario does not favour Niger either, with them in a significantly worse position to achieve a playoff spot due to their inferior goal difference to every other team, as well as having less points than second place sides in other groups.

Due to Eritrea’s exclusion from the qualifiers, one team misses out on each matchday, meaning Tanzania’s (10) qualification journey has already ended, alongside Congo.



Group F – The Impenetrable Elephants or Auba-Less Gabon

It was a quite remarkable matchday nine in Group F as Ivory Coast (23) kept their unbeaten record up with a stunning 7-0 win in Seychelles (0), while Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang had a very eventful game – scoring four goals and getting sent off in their clutch win in Gambia (10).



The suspension means that Aubameyang will be unavailable for Gabon’s (22) final group game against Burundi (10), meaning Ivory Coast will require victory at home to Kenya (12) to return to the World Cup finals for the first time since 2014.

Whichever nation fails to qualify directly into the tournament will be guaranteed a place in the interconfederation playoff due to having their net points total above 15 meaning not enough teams will be able to leapfrog them and push them outside the top four.

As for Kenya, The Gambia, Burundi, and Seychelles, their journey will end on Tuesday.


Group G – Algeria (Q)

Algeria’s (22) confident navigation through Somalia (1) saw them match Ivory Coast to achieve automatic qualification for the World Cup for the first time since 2014. Also, in matchday nine, Uganda (18) all but secured second place in the group with their win in Botswana (9) due to their superior goal difference, however, they still face an uphill battle to earn a spot in the playoffs.

To keep in with a chance at interconfederation qualification, the Cranes will need to defeat Algeria – and even then, qualification would not be confirmed.

Mozambique (15) and Guinea (14) have had impressive runs, however, their journey’s will both also end on Tuesday, joining Botswana and Somalia.



Group H – Tunisia (Q)

The last of the already-qualified nations, it is Tunisia (25) who return to their third straight World Cup, joining the Ivory Coast in not having conceded so far.

This is the simplest group to explain yet, since Namibia (15) will not be able to qualify for the World Cup due to having nine points on the revamped chart in the second-placed rankings, meaning they cannot catch DR Congo in fourth.

Tunisia will host Namibia on Tuesday as the hosts look to finish their qualification campaign unbeaten and build confidence heading into the finals, while Namibia will look to end on a high.

Liberia (14), Malawi (10), and Equatorial Guinea (10) have impressed with their respective campaigns, however, will join the pointless São Tomé and Principé in failing to qualify for a World Cup once more.


Group I – Can Madagascar Make History?

The answer is most likely no, with Madagascar (19, +8) three points behind Ghana (22, +16)) with an inferior goal difference. However, they will cling onto that hope when they travel to Mali (15) on Sunday evening, although Ghana will require just one point at home to fourth place Comoros (15) in order to seal qualification of their own.

The good news for Madagascar is that they are in an excellent position since a win will confirm their qualification to the confederation playoffs, while a draw mean that three of DR Congo, Burkina Faso, Uganda and Niger will need to win, which looks relatively unlikely considering their own fixtures.

As for the remaining teams in the group, winless Chad (1) will look to earn more points when they host Central African Republic (5) on Sunday.



Final Thoughts

Now you have a better understanding of all the permutations in each group heading into the final matchday, we also now have a clearer idea as to which second-placed nations will achieve a good enough record to qualify for the confederation playoff.

To recap, Gabon (or Ivory Coast) have secured qualification to the interconfederation playoff, while Cameroon (or Cape Verde), Madagascar and DR Congo (or Senegal) remain in the best position for the remaining spots.

As aforementioned, this interconfederation playoff will be completed in November, during the next international break. The winner of this will then advance to the “World Cup playoff, where the already qualified Bolivia (CONMEBOL) and New Caledonia (OFC) will join them alongside two CONCACAF nations and an AFC one – this playoff will be played in late March time.

Benji Kosartiyer
Journalist

Ben Growdon

Content Writer

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