Football Park’s Midweek EFL Accumulator: Can We Turn a Tenner into £230?

Football Park’s Midweek EFL Accumulator: Can We Turn a Tenner into £230?

Midweek football chaos. My favourite. Especially in the EFL. Tuesday nights in the Championship aren’t glamorous. They don’t come with Champions League anthems. But they come with bovril, pies and the occasional betslip that can turn a tenner into a few hundred quid. That’s exactly what we’re aiming for here.

This week, we’ve cooked up a four-leg acca using Football Park’s prediction model, that is full data driven. Total odds? A tasty 23.31 on Betfred. Stick £10 on and you’re getting £230 back. Not bad for a Tuesday night punt.

Oh, also, you can grab £50 in free bets through Betfred’s sign up offer today. All you need to do is, click here, sign up, bet £10 and you’ll be rewarded with £50 in free bets. It’s that straightforward.

Let’s have a look at the bet:

Selection 1: Both Teams To Score - Birmingham City v Sheffield Wednesday

St Andrews under the floodlights. Birmingham, 53.3% favourites, trying to live up to their Hollywood fairytale. Sheffield Wednesday, down in the dumps, only have a 20% chance of winning (according to our prediction model). The algorithm says a 2-1 Birmingham win, but here’s the fun part: there’s a 60% chance of both sides to score.

So, that makes our minds up for us: We’ve backed Both Teams to Score @ 2.1.

Recent games between the two sides don’t say this is a daft selection. We expect Blues to probably nick it, but the Owls will get at least a consolation. BTTS feels like good value here at just above evens.

Selection 2: Leicester Win - Birmingham City v Sheffield Wednesday

Ah, Wrexham. The Hollywood club. Ryan Reynolds, Rob McElhenney, the documentary, the fairy tale. It’s been decently fun watching them climb, but unfortunately, our algorithm doesn’t believe in fairytales.

The model gives Leicester a 60% chance of winning, projects a 3-0 home victory, and only gives us Wrexham a 30% chance of victory.

We’re keeping it simple: Leicester to win @ 1.70. No need to overcomplicate. Sometimes you can just pick the favourite, and that’s exactly what we’re doing here.

Sorry Wrexham, this isn’t Netflix - it’s the Championship. Leicester to win.

Selection 3: Over 1.5 Bristol City Goals - Bristol City vs Ipswich Town

Here’s where it gets a bit cheeky. The model thinks Bristol City will do the business at Ashton Gate, projecting a 2-0 win for the home side. Ipswich have struggled so far this season, but, in my opinion, they’ll be right up there come the end of the season. Bristol City are generating 1.4 expected goals per game currently, it feels like it could be a good night for the Robins under the floodlights.

The market likes the safer ‘Double Chance’ at 1.53, but we’re going braver. The Robins have firepower, Ipswich’s away form is leaky, and the home crowd will expect goals. Two or more for Bristol City feels very likely to happen.

Over 1.5 Bristol City Goals gives us a bit more juice, and matches the 2-0 algorithm shout. Go bold. Sometimes you’ve got to stick your neck on the line.

Selection 4: Blackburn Win - Blackburn vs Swansea

Finally, we head to Ewood Park, where Blackburn meet Swansea. The model has Blackburn as 60% favourites, Swansea at 33%, and a 2-1 Rovers win as the likeliest outcome.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting, a Blackburn win is priced at 2.5. That looks huge value when the algorithm gives it a 60% chance. Swansea might make it scrappy, but Rovers have home form on their side (threw wins from the last four meetings at Ewood Park).

We’ve also got both teams to score at 56.7%, but when you’re getting 2.5 odds on the home side with that probability, don’t overthink it. Add it to your betslip and get those odds up.

Everyone likes high odds.

The Acca In Full

Birmingham City v Sheffield Wednesday - Both Teams To Score

Leicester City v Wrexham - Leicester Win

Bristol City v Ipswich Town - Over 1.5 Bristol City Goals

Blackburn Rovers v Swansea City - Blackburn Win

Odds on Betfred: 23.31

Stake: £10

Potential Return: £230

Why Our Algorithm Picking This Acca Makes Sense

Each leg is rooted in Football Park’s prediction model. We’re not just throwing darts at the fixtures - we’re using expected goals, win probabilities, and a statistical model that’s been tested against other match results.

It works.

BTTS at St. Andrews makes sense since both teams love scoring (and conceding).

Leicester to beat USA FC, a mismatch in terms of squad depth and xG.

Bristol City’s home advantage points to goals - especially with Ipswich’s poor start.

Blackburn’s value price is simply too good to ignore given their probability edge.

You can view the full breakdowns for all of these games, and all UEFA Champions League fixtures for yourself over on our predictions page.

Good Luck, and Gamble Responsibly

The acca is coming out at a nice 23.0, so you could potentially turn a tenner into £230. It’s a bet that looks fun (and risky) but sensible on paper.

Bet smart, bet fun, and remember - it’s never guaranteed. But, it is guaranteed to make your Tuesday night a lot more interesting. Only gamble what you can afford to lose, and don’t go chasing losses.

Good luck if you’re getting on the bet with us.