Football Park’s 10/1 Saturday Accumulator

Football Park’s 10/1 Saturday Accumulator

The international break is (finally) over. Thank the lord above. To mark the return of domestic football, we’ve put together a beauty of an acca for Saturday’s games using our in-house advanced algorithm. No guessing. No ‘my cousin’s barber said Exeter will win on Saturday so I need to back them’. Just numbers, a little common sense, and some luck.

Putting the selections together, you get total odds of 11.81 on Highbet - a tenner could potentially return £128. Lovely.

We’ve put the selections below: why we’ve selected each pick, what the model expects, and how we expect the game to go. Let’s get into it.

Selection 1: Stockport County v Exeter City - Home Win @ 1.39

The model is very clear in this one: Stockport win probability is 73%. Expected goals lean hard towards the Hatters too (1.7 v 0.6xg), with the most likely scoreline 2-0. Even the suggested game script is neat: a slow-burner first half that opens up at the break (HT draw / FT home is the favoured pattern).

When a favourite is this strong on our algorithm, it’s hard to ignore. We don’t have to chase big prices - we just need ‘bankers on paper’ that glues the acca together. We expect Stockport to do a sensible job at home here and get us the first tick on our slip.

Home win for Stockport.

Selection 2: Nice v Lyon - Both Teams To Score @ 1.59

This has “trade punches” written all over it. The model is being swayed towards Lyon on the winning side (46.7% probability), but the real story is that both sides are expected to score goals: the BTTS probability is 56.7%, with a total of 2.5 expected goals. The correct prediction is coming out at a 2-1 victory for the away side, which is exactly the kind of tight-but-open game we’re after for a BTTS selection.

The algorithm is expecting at least one first-half goal (Over 0.5 first half goals probability is 53%), so we shouldn’t be sat round waiting for a goal notification for too long. Two teams with similar scoring expectations (1.2 v 1.3) and neither teams screaming a clean sheet? Yes please.

We’re going for both teams to score in this one.

Selection 3: Wolfsberger AC v Reid - Home Win & Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.49

Here’s the juicy leg in this acca. This is a leg that not many punters tend to bet on, but we’re pretty confident that it should land. The over 2.5 goals probability is coming in at a huge 65% through our algorithm, with 2.7 goals expected in the match. We also get nice half by half indicators - over 0.5 first half goals 67% and over 1.5 first half goals at 60% - which screams goals, early entertainment, and a game that never really settles.

Putting all the probabilities together, you’ve got the perfect combo selection over both teams to score & over 2.5 goals. Wolfsberger are favourites to win (53% chance), but Reid’s attack isn’t being dismissed by the data. They’re expected to contribute.

We’re taking both teams to score and over 2.5 goals here.

Selection 4: Marseille v Le Havre - Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.59

Back to France, and on paper, this one looks as straightforward as they come.

The Football Park algorithm gives over 2.5 goals a 61.8% probability, with a projected 3.2 total match goals - the highest of the acca. Marseille are expected to dominate, with 2.6 goals predicted for the hosts.

The model’s correct score production of 3-0 tells a story: a comfortable Marseille win. The 80% chance of at least one first half goal, combined with a 56% chance for two or more before the break, means this one could be a quick settler.

The data from their previous six meanings fit the same pattern, with a 5-1 and a 3-0 in the last two games between these sides.

Over 2.5 goals in this one, hopefully wrapped up by half time.

Selection 5: AS Roma v Inter - Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.35

We finish in Italy, where the algorithm is expecting to hit the simple over 1.5 goal selection.

Inter are favourites with a 60% chance of winning, and the match itself is projected to hit 2.9 goals. Expected goals sway towards the away side (1.7 to 1.1) but both teams are more than capable of finding the net.

It’s one of those classic Serie A fixtures where everyone expects a tight, 1-0 game - but the numbers disagree. The model gives a 100% probability of at least one goal and 65% probability for over 1.5, which is more than enough for us. The most likely final score is coming out at a 0-3 victory for Inter, and while that sounds quite harsh for Roma, we’ll happily take it if it means this selection lands.

With an 80% chance of a first-half goal, we should hopefully see this selection come in nice and early.

Sometimes it’s better to keep it simple - two goals in Rome, job done.

Our Acca Combined: 11.81 (10/1+)

Stockport County v Exeter City - Home Win @ 1.39

Nice v Lyon - Both Teams To Score @ 1.59

Wolfsberger AC v Reid - Over 2.5 Goals & Both Teams To Score @ 2.50

Marseille v Le Havre - Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.59

AS Roma v Inter - Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.35

Total odds: 11.81

Potential returns: £10 returns £128 on Highbet

How To Get Involved and Claim £20 in Free Bets

Step 1: Sign up to Highbet here.

Step 2: Bet £10 on our accumulator.

Step 3: Win or lose, once the acca has settled, you’ll be rewarded with £20 in free bets.

If the algorithm has done its job (which it usually does), you’ll be cashing in £128.

Everyone loves a good weekend punt, but keep it light. Betting is there to add a bit of fun to your football, not to pay your rent. A tenner is plenty.

Enjoy the games, and remember - only bet what you can afford to lose.

Good luck if you’re getting on the acca with us.