Saturday EFL Accumulator: Built Using Football Park’s Algorithm

Saturday football. Not having to deal with VAR in the Prem. Just proper EFL football. Oh, and an acca. And luckily for you, we’ve got one built by Football Park’s in-house algorithm - not by your mate Dave after a couple of pints.

We’re talking proper numbers: expected goals, win probabilities, and real data pointing to where the value hides. This weekends’ four-fold includes a goal angle at Wigan, a confident home win at Northampton, and two BTTS games that the model is practically insisting on us adding. Put it all together you’ll get odds of 8/1 on Betfred. Basically, a tenner would return £90.

Not bad for a Saturday afternoon during the international break.

Let’s break each selection down:

Wigan v Wycombe - Over 1.5 Goals

We kick off in Wigan, who host Wycombe in what should be a lively one. The algorithm rates the chances of two or more goals at a confident 82.5%, with a 2.0 expected goal total split almost evenly between both sides.

The recent form backs the selection up beautifully. Wigan’s last six have all been open affairs - draws with Stoke (1-1), Lincoln (2-2), and Plymouth (1-1), plus a 3-0 win over Doncaster. They’re pretty unpredictable, Wigan, but they do find the net.

Wycombe, on the other hand, don’t really do boring nil-nils either. Their last six include a 2-2 draw with Barnsley, a 2-1 loss to AFC Wimbledon, and solid wins over Northampton and Mansfield. They’ve scored in five of their last six, and the algorithm’s projected a score of 0-2 to the away side. That fits this selection perfectly.

Basically, both teams are more than capable of scoring, neither park the bus, and all the numbers add up to a minimum of two goals. Exactly what we want from selection one.

Northampton v Rotherham - Home Win

Next Stop: Sixfields. The algorithm isn’t holding any prisoners in this one - a 68% home win probability, and a predicted scoreline of 2-0 to the home side.

The Cobblers have been solid. Four wins to nil in their last six (2-0 vs Exeter, 1-0 vs Leyton Orient, 2-0 vs Bolton). They’re pretty disciplined, sound at the back, and exactly the type of team you can trust to get the job done.

Rotherham, however, are struggling to find any form at all. One win in six, surrounded by defeats to AFC Wimbledon, Stoke, and Mansfield. They concede late, they can’t kill games, and they don’t travel well.

Quite strange considering they’re not having to play in Rotherham. Surely that would give them an extra push.

Everything from our algorithm’s numbers add up. Northampton are looking like a top side early on this season, they’re expected to score 1.3 to Rotherham's 0.9, and the model suggests they’ll control the match. We’re following the algorithm’s lead and backing a home win here.

Bristol Rovers v MK Dons - Both Teams To Score

This one looks like pure entertainment. The model is giving us a 63% chance of BTTS, with an expected goals total of 2.5.

The data, mixed with the form, makes sense. Bristol Rovers have scored a lot of goals recently - a 3-2 win over Newport, a 2-1 win over Barrow, a 2-1 win over Salford and defeats that still saw both sides get on the scoresheet. They’re leaky at the back, but they’re always in the game.

MK Dons are literally the same. Just a different name. Pretty ironic.

They’ve been involved in four consecutive games where both teams have scored: 3-2 against Gillingham, 2-1 vs Shrewsbury, 2-1 loss to Accrington, and a 1-1 draw with Chesterfield. The algorithm is predicting a 2-1 home win, which fits this selection to a T.

Both teams play on the front foot, both average more than a goal per game, and neither are known for clean sheets. This should be a classic BTTS banker for the weekend.

Fleetwood Town v Harrogate Town - Both Teams To Score

To wrap things up, we’re off to Fleetwood for a game where the algorithm really fancies goals. It’s giving us a 73% probability of BTTS, with 2.5 expected goals, and a predicted 1-1 draw.

Fleetwood’s last six tell a familiar sort: a 4-2 win over Colchester, narrow losses to Cambridge and Chelsea, and a 1-1 draw with Walsall. They’ve been involved in plenty of games where goals go in.

Harrogate are inconsistent, but the model still has them to score here. They’ve won a couple of tight games recently, but they also lost 3-1 to Swindon, and 2-1 to Crewe. Their away matches rarely stay quiet, and the 93% chance of a first-half goal hints at some early action.

Both sides are pretty evenly matched, both prefer attacking transitions (hoof the ball in the box) over possession, but both consistently switch off defensively. A 1-1 or 2-1 either way wouldn’t surprise me (or the algorithm) here - exactly what you want for a BTTS selection.

The Acca Combined

Wigan v Wycombe - Over 1.5 Goals

Northampton v Rotherham - Home Win

Bristol Rovers v MK Dons - Both Teams To Score

Fleetwood v Harrogate - Both Teams To Score

Total odds: 8/1.

Potential returns: £10 returns £91.

How To Get Involved

Step 1: Open an account with Betfred (if you don’t have one already).

Step 2: Deposit & bet £10 on our EFL Accumulator.

Step 3: Get £50 in free bets, no matter the outcome of our bet.

If the bet lands, you’ll win £91 in cash plus £50 in free bets. If it doesn’t, you’ll still get £50 in free bets to use. The free bets will be in your account as soon as the bet is settled.

A Quick Word on Responsible Betting

A little reminder: betting is there to make football more fun, not stressful. Keep your stakes low, only bet what you can afford to lose, and never chase losses.

Good luck if you’re getting on the bet with us.