Can Cardiff City Survive The Drop?

Cardiff City have had a season of two tales in the EFL Championship, and with just three games left of the season, the Blue Birds could soon be calling themselves a League One Football club.

Following their 2-0 loss to Sheffield United, Cardiff are second from bottom in the Championship, but within touching distance of the clubs ahead of them, and just one win from their last three games of the season could be enough to rescue themselves from the drop.

However, even with the possibility of surviving relegation from the Championship this season, this season has still been nowhere near the expectations of the Welsh Club who were only in the Premier League just a number of years ago.

With the sacking of their manager Erol Bulut just eight games into the season, Omer Riza was given the manager job on an interim basis. During this time, Riza was able to string together a run of six games unbeaten, before losing twice in a row to Luton and Blackburn. However, this was enough to convince the Cardiff board that Riza should be given the job until at least the end of the season. Riza guided Cardiff to an unbeaten month throughout January, and things were looking on the up for the Blue Birds.

So fast forward towards the end of the season, Cardiff are now second from bottom in the league, with relegation looking like a clear prospect, and to top it off, Omer Riza has received backlash from his own fans after calling the majority of them “Clueless.”

Cardiff City manager Omer Riza has been called "disrespectful" for branding some of the club's fans "clueless".#BBCFootball #CCFC pic.twitter.com/Y19uvAkTdW

— BBC Sport Wales (@BBCSportWales) April 17, 2025

Season so far

In August, no one at Cardiff would’ve imagined the season to go how it has. Erol Bulut started the season in charge of the Welsh side, but was only able to manage just one point from the opening six championship games of the season, scoring just one in those six. It was the worst start to a season for Cardiff in 94 years. Erol Bulut had joined the side the season before, and Cardiff improved massively under the Turkish man, finishing 12th in their first season. Bulut was given an improved contract ahead of the season, but that contract only lasted him eight games.

Since Malaysian Vincent Tan has owned the club, they have now had 13 managers in just 14 years (including Riza). Of course, it is nowhere near on the calamitous scale of Watford, but changing manager almost each year you have owned the club can never be a good sign, with coaches not given the time necessary to implement their style and regime at the club.

Bulut was given the sack, and Omer Riza had been working as part of his backroom staff, and was given the full time gig on an interim basis. His first game could have went better, as Hull walked over the Blues with a 4-1 win.

Although, things did improve with Riza taking Cardiff to a six game unbeaten run, before going winless for another five after that. There was a clear inconsistency to the form of Cardiff, and there appeared to be reluctance from the board to appoint Riza. Riza was appointed on 22nd September, but wasn’t confirmed as manager until the 5th December. Taking over sixty days to appoint Riza, and doing it after he hasn’t won a game for five matches in row? Something wasn’t adding up in Cardiff, with many fans wondering whether Riza was the last option, failing to attract any managers of a higher calibre.

Things didn’t approve straight after Riza was confirmed as manager until the end of the season, as it took another five games to get a win, but Cardiff went on an eight game unbeaten run, although it ended in spectacular fashion with a 7-0 loss to Leeds.

This again highlights the inconcistency from Cardiff, who somehow went 9 games without a win, before not losing for eight games after that, and then losing 7-0? Cardiff may be inconsistent but you cant deny the entertainment fact they bring to the EFL Championship, although Blue Birds fans may have a different choice of words for their form this season.

Followed by more inconsistent results, Cardiff are now winless since the 15th March, and are well within the relegation zone, fighting with five other teams to stay in the Championship.

Defensive woes

“Attack wins you games, defence wins you titles,” is a statement that couldn’t be anymore true when it comes to Cardiff. Cardiff have the second worst defence in the league, conceding 66 goals across the season, but have only conceded an XG of 58, suggesting that the Blues could be better off if goalkeeper Jak Alnwick doing a better job of preventing goals.

Stats Via Opta

Defender Calum Chambers has won possession the most for the Blues, winning the ball 159 times whilst also making 52 interceptions. Dimitrios Goutas ranks highest for the Blues in blocks, making 26 of them across the season, whilst ranking seventh in the league for clearances with 215. It is clear that Cardiff have signs of a good defence, with stats not showing a clear reason as to how they have conceded the second most goals in the Championship.

Stats Via Opta

Although, Cardiff rank fifth worst in the league for tackles, seventh lowest for blocks and third worst for recoveries. So, whilst some players may individually rank high for defensive actions, the team as a whole lacks defensive solidity, and ranking third worst for ball recoveries shows the lack of work rate from the team to win the ball back, and instead invite more pressure onto themselves.

Lack of foundations in Build up

When it comes to goals, Cardiff haven’t excelled in this department, only scoring 45 goals all season. The side have only created an XG of 42 all season, and these numbers only point to the clear reason as to why the side have underperformed so miserably this season.

Cardiff rank sixth worst in the league for passes per sequence, and can only string together an average of 3 passes before they lose the ball, and the ball is turned over to the opposition.

Making a measly 3 passes on average before losing the ball is no stat of a championship side. Regardless of the tactical style, games shouldn’t be played like a pinball machine, making three passes before losing the ball. Games are never going to be won when you cant progress the ball high up the pitch.

Stats Via Opta

Fullback Perry Ng ranks highest for Cardiff for passes in final third attempted, but doesn’t even break into the top 45 for the whole of the Championship. For your fullback to be the highest for attempted passes in the attacking third is a worry itself, but on top of that he isn’t even in the top 45 across the league, that is when you have to question the management and the style of play.

Riza has coached a team into conceding the second most goals this season, whilst also showing no signs of attacking football, and has the audacity to call fans ‘clueless’.

It leaves you wondering what must go on at the training ground for Cardiff to play the way they do. The team is disorganised, and the players look like they have only met for the first time when they step out onto the pitch each week.

Can they stay up?

Cardiff still have three games left to go in there season, and could yet survive in the Championship. All teams from downwards of 16th still have a chance of relegation, albeit some lower than others, and Cardiff could simply need a win and a draw to stay up. If now is the time you call for that inconsistent form in order to put an end to their winless run, now is the time.

Image via Fotmob

Cardiff’s next game is up against Oxford, who also do still have a chance of relegation. A win against Oxford could be crucial, as not only could it take Cardiff out of the relegation zone, it could also drag Oxford into the fight, making it a nervy final two games. Cardiff end their season against West Brom who are in the fight for playoffs, before heading to Norwich on the final day.

On paper, Oxford looks to be the most winnable of the three remaining games, but this is the championship and Cardiff City we are talking about, where anything could be possible.

Riza needs to demand the most from his players, with one final push needed to get the team over the line, and hope that Cardiff can remain a Championship club for at least one season longer.