Judgement Day – What Each League Two Team Must Do In The Final Day Fixtures To Secure Automatic Promotion or Playoffs

Yesterday’s fixtures in League Two saw action from both sides of the table as the final relegation spot was secured by Carlisle United who saw back-to-back relegation in similar fashion to Forest Green Rovers and also saw two of the three automatic promotion spots secured as Port Vale and Doncaster Rovers saw wins against AFC Wimbledon and Bradford City secure their spots in the third tier next season – with the latter being beaten twice by the same team for the first time this season. Join me as we preview both the automatic promotion race and the playoff race in League Two and look at how each team could be promoted or secure a play-off spot.

A Summary Of The 2024/25 League Two Season

For large periods, the League Two season was headlined by Walsall and their rise to the summit of the table – a position they held until early April. However, with each side in the division having ups and down whether that be through form or injured players, the season has not seen one side come through and be dominant like we have seen in previous seasons with Stockport County and Leyton Orient.

This has led to a promotion battle so tight that one game could make a side in 3rd go to 7th in the span of 90 minutes. But with inconsistency, it has not been apparent which side would come through to secure the three coveted automatic promotion spots with it only being recently through an upturn in form that Port Vale and Doncaster have come through the playoffs and to the top of the table – at different times – to secure the top two places in the division with the third spot looking like a fight between Bradford, Walsall and Notts County to decide.

On the opposite side of the table, Carlisle United have been the main headline. Starting with Paul Simpson who was sacked after 4, the Cumbrians have gone through 3 managers and even with a small resurrection under Mark Hughes, the Brunton Park outfit could not escape. In contrast, their relegation partners Morecambe have only gone through 1 manager – Derek Adams – although have faced issues off the pitch which saw them put under a transfer embargo. This, combined with a small budget limited the Shrimps ability to fight for survival and even with small periods of joy – their season has resulted in despair with their fate being confirmed before Carlisle’s.

The playoff race has been such as exciting as both the relegation and automatic promotion race too. With sides from across the division featuring in the playoffs at least once and with three teams still in the fight for the final spot in the playoffs, it can be seen to be have been one of League Two’s most exciting areas and one that will be decided in a blockbuster final day schedule.

The Automatic Promotion Hunt

3 teams, one game, one spot. With just 3 points separating Bradford, Walsall and Notts County with the former holding the 3rd automatic promotion spot currently, the pressure is on to deliver. So, what does each of the teams need to do to deliver?

Bradford City –

The aim is clear for Bradford. Win and they go up in 3rd. Draw or lose and the Bantams are left dependent on other results. If the Valley Parade were to draw, Alexander’s team would need Walsall and Notts County to drop points. If they were to lose, they would need Walsall to match this result and Notts County to drop points.

Walsall –

Walsall must not lose to have a chance of grabbing the 3rd automatic spot in League Two. They must win or draw against Crewe and hope Bradford drop points in their affair with Fleetwood. They would also have to hope Notts County drop points in the event that the Saddlers draw.

Notts County –

The Magpies must win to have any chance of securing an automatic promotion spot. They must then hope that Walsall drop points, and that Bradford lose to secure 3rd.

If All 3 Win –

3rd – Bradford – 78 Points 4th – Walsall – 77 Points 5th – Notts County – 75 Points

If Bradford Draw and Walsall and Notts County Win –

3rd – Walsall – 77 Points 4th – Bradford – 76 Points 5th – Notts County – 75 Points

If Bradford Lose and Walsall and Notts County Win –

3rd – Walsall – 77 Points 4th – Notts County – 75 Points 5th – Bradford – 75 Points

If Bradford and Walsall Lose and Notts County Win –

3rd – Notts County – 75 Points 4th – Bradford – 75 Points 5th – Walsall – 74 Points

If Bradford Lose, Walsall Draw and Notts County Win –

3rd – Walsall – 75 Points 4th – Notts County – 75 Points 5th – Bradford – 75 Points

The Playoff Race

5 teams are fighting for the playoffs with 4 of these fighting it out for 7th – Salford, Grimsby, Chesterfield, and Colchester with the latter needing a minor miracle for this to happen.

Wimbledon –

If Wimbledon win or draw, they are guaranteed a playoff spot. However, if the Dons lose to Grimsby the Mariners would overtake them and would have to rely on Salford and Chesterfield not winning to secure their playoff spot.

Salford -

In 7th currently, all Salford need to do is win although with a final day trip to Carlisle who they have only won at in 1 out of 4 occasions – this could prove difficult. Therefore, if the Manchester outfit draw, they would need every other side in the race to draw likewise to secure a spot. The same situation but all 4 sides losing can be said if the Ammie’s were to lose.

Grimsby –

With Wimbledon at home on the final day, a draw could secure 7th if Salford were to lose and if Chesterfield and Colchester dropped points. If Grimsby won, they would leapfrog Wimbledon and would be guaranteed a play-off place. If the Mariners were to lose, they would not secure a playoff place.

Chesterfield –

With the highest goal difference of each of the 4 teams, Chesterfield could secure a play-off spot with a draw if both Salford and Grimsby were to lose, and Colchester were to drop points. If Cook’s side were to win away at Accrington, they would need the same situation to happen, but Colchester would be taken out of the equation. Similar to Grimsby if the Mariners lose – they cannot secure a playoff spot.

Colchester –

The last team in the playoff race mathematically, Colchester go into judgement day with the second worst form out of the 4 teams in contention. To secure a playoff spot, Colchester would need to win. If they were to draw or lose, Cowley’s side would not be able to catch 7th place. Let us say Colchester win, they would then need Salford to lose realistically and would need Grimsby and Chesterfield to both drop points.

If Wimbledon, Salford, Chesterfield, and Colchester Win alongside Notts County winning –

6th – Wimbledon – 73 Points 7th - Salford – 71 Points 8th – Chesterfield – 70 Points 9th – Colchester – 69 Points 10th – Grimsby – 68 Points

If Grimsby, Salford, Chesterfield, and Colchester Win –

6th – Salford – 71 Points 7th – Grimsby – 71 Points 8th – Chesterfield – 70 Points 9th – Wimbledon – 70 Points 10th – Colchester – 69 Points

If Chesterfield Win, Salford, and Grimsby Draw and Colchester Win –

6th – Wimbledon – 71 Points 7th – Chesterfield – 70 Points 8th – Salford – 69 Points 9th - Colchester – 69 Points 10th – Grimsby – 69 Points

If Colchester Win, Salford Lose and Chesterfield and Grimsby Draw –

6th – Wimbledon – 71 Points 7th – Colchester – 69 Points 8th – Grimsby – 69 Points 9th – Chesterfield – 68 Points 10th – Salford – 68 Points

Writer’s View

League Two has been chaotic to say the least with flips, turns and moments we never saw coming. The only thing we saw coming was it all coming down to a final “judgement” day. How do you see it playing out? Give me your prediction!