Premier League Data Analysis: The Stats That Show Bournemouth Belong in the Top Four

Premier League Data Analysis: The Stats That Show Bournemouth Belong in the Top Four

Statistics are a wicked way to view sports. In football especially, they get people doubting the possibilities and outcomes of a game just because of what has or hasn’t happened in the past.

With the technology in today’s game, it has become very easy to be overreliant on numbers and figures. While that can lead people down misleading avenues, stats can also help teams and players work on the areas of their play that requires improvement.

We are only four game-weeks into the new Premier League campaign and there is already one team whose numbers and statistics are now starting to correlate with their league position.

It only takes one deep dive into last season to realise that this was not an unprecedented situation - the data shows that Bournemouth belong in the top four.

AFC Bournemouth’s Remarkable Stats

Andoni Iraola’s Bournemouth have had a fantastic start to the season, there’s no two ways about it. Three wins from their opening four games, having beaten Brighton, Spurs and Wolves, with their only defeat being at the hands of a home Liverpool outfit.

Those three games now house the Cherries in fourth place in the Premier League table, with nine points to their name.

And, according to data based on xPOS (expected position) and xPTS (expected points), calculated by Opta, Bournemouth should correctly be sat as high as third right now - behind both Brighton and Chelsea.

Antoine Semenyo has been transferred in more than DOUBLE the next-highest player for #FPL Gameweek 5 🫨

The simple question is: are you one of them? pic.twitter.com/XN1ANlRKHa

— Fantasy Premier League (@OfficialFPL) September 18, 2025

Ironically, the data actually suggests that Iraola’s men should have slightly fewer points than they do, with 7.8, but they are perfectly matching their xG (expected goals) with six goals expected, and exactly six scored.

Furthermore, it claims Bournemouth should have only conceded 3.5 goals this season (5 actually conceded) from their xGA (expected goals against), implying that they should not have been able to let four goals in against Liverpool on opening day.

Of course, it is worth taking this data with a pinch of salt. The campaign is only four games in, giving us a fairly small sample size to judge how well the Cherries have lived up to expectations. As we get further into the season, a broader picture could help enhance this theory.

However, it would be misleading to suggest that this isn’t a familiar theme on the South Coast. When you delve into the stats of last season, you soon realise Bournemouth are continuing to underperform the numbers expected of them.

Only Liverpool are above Bournemouth in XG difference per game this season 👀 pic.twitter.com/miPWGAQdSi

— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) December 16, 2024

A Fantastic Season - But Should it Have Been Better?

Bournemouth concluded last term on a real high. They had just finished ninth in the Premier League, on 56 points. It was not only their joint-highest finish ever, but also the most points they had ever tallied up in the top flight.

They managed this on the back of losing their star striker Dominic Solanke the summer prior, as well.

It is clear to see that Iraola’s revolution has spurred the Cherries’ momentum forwards, as they continue to follow suit of clubs like Aston Villa, Brighton and Nottingham Forest, who have all pushed towards European football in the years following their promotions from the EFL Championship.

But should Bournemouth have achieved better last season - should they be the ones preparing for a campaign in Europe?

Last season, the Cherries were ranked fourth in the Premier League based on xG and third on xPTS. According to Opta, Bournemouth had an xG of 72.62 and an xPTS of 65.03. Whereas in reality, they only scored 58 goals and grabbed 56 points.

(Premier League xPTS Table 2024/25)

This comes as one of the greatest differences out of the 20 teams, and it has them ranked on similar xG with Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea and with more xG than second-placed Arsenal.

Whilst xG does not always suggest that a potential shot should have definitely hit the net, it is interesting to see that Bournemouth maybe should have scored nearly 15 goals more than they did - especially, when they had three players reach double figures last season.

It is worth noting that just because the South Coasters’ xG was ranked fourth, doesn’t mean that they should have finished fourth in the table. However, to be grouped alongside teams who finished in the top four and even above one of them, yet end up in ninth is quite absurd. It does suggest, in any sense, that the work being done by Iraola and his men could be building up to a grandiose reward in seasons to come - European football.

It will be interesting to see if this recurrence lingers across the course of this season and, if it does, whether Iraola will adapt anything within the team to alter it.

How are xG and xPTS Calculated?

Expected Goals, or xG, is a statistic rapidly growing in popularity in football. It is also one that is far from guesswork. xG is measured through an array of different variables and metrics.

In simple terms, xG is just the likelihood of a shot hitting the back of the net. It is measured from 0 to 1, with the latter being an almost definite goal and 0 meaning the shot has negligible chance of going in.

The metrics used by algorithms to determine xG consist of a wide variety. Some of the key ones include: shot type (penalty etc), shot location (six-yard box etc), shot trajectory (volley, first-time etc), body part (head, foot), and context (opposition positioning).

Using this logic, shots that take deflections, ones from far out and own goals often have a much lower xG; whilst tap-ins and penalties tend to have it much greater.

What Does xG Mean in Football? 📚

Sky Sports’ Sam Blitz and Peter Smith break down everything you need to know about expected goals ⚽️ pic.twitter.com/XW4dBgUc3S

— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) August 13, 2025

Expected Points, or xPTS, also follow a very similar strategy. However this time, it is measured from 0 to 3, because that is the amount of points you can earn in a football match.

The straightforward way to calculate xPTS is to work out each team’s xG in a match and then award the 3 points to the winner, or one point each for a draw. Then these points can be tallied up over the length of a season.

However, many stat providers use the more advanced method of weighing up different outcomes to ration out the xPTS. With this, the xG simulates the chances of a win, draw or loss in a game and then the points are shared accordingly.

As a result of this method, a lot of luck can be cancelled out, as teams who snatch a 1-0 win despite having less xG, will often be handed less xPTS than their opponents.