The Europa League Final Day - What’s On The Line?

Everything You Need to Know Ahead of the Europa League's Day of Reckoning

Well, last night was fun, wasn’t it? Chelsea secured a last-gasp spot in the last 16; Real Madrid, PSG and Inter Milan have all been forced to play an extra two games in the play-off round, and Benfica goalkeeper Anatoly Trubin pulled off a heroic 98th-minute goal to send Benfica to the knockouts with the last kick of the game.

So, fancy doing it all over again?

Just 24 hours after the curtain fell on the Champions League first phase, we turn our attention to the second tier of European competition, the Europa League. Set up in the exact same format, we can only expect a repeat of Wednesday evening, stacked with late drama, no shortage of controversy, and unlikely stories.

Lyon and Aston Villa through to the Round of 16 ✅

How the table looks after Matchday 7 👇#UEL pic.twitter.com/NKmvFSjey9

— UEFA Europa League (@EuropaLeague) January 22, 2026

But which sides sit in the spotlight? Who is already through, who can seal a spot in the play-off phase, and who requires a result to stave off the threat of elimination? Let's take you through who needs what as the Europa League’s day of reckoning arrives.

Villa, Lyon and the Rest of the Top Eight

Lyon and Aston Villa are the only sides to have mathematically guaranteed knockout football, with their respective tallies of 18 points, enough to see them bypass the play-off round and land a spot in the last 16 proper.

It makes their respective ties against PAOK Thessaloniki and RB Salzburg dead rubbers for the two of them - however, there is plenty on the line elsewhere in the race for a round of 16 spot.

FC Freiburg require just a point to join them, while wins for Midtjylland, Braga, Roma and Ferencváros all know that wins will take them all the way to the knockout stage proper.

Real Betis are the only side in the top eight at serious risk. They occupy the final last 16 spot but lie level on points with 9th placed Porto and face a Feyenoord side that will be fighting tooth and nail in their own battle to remain in the competition.

Porto, on the other hand, face an out-of-sorts Rangers side who have already been eliminated from the competition, meaning there is a chance that their Scottish opponents are mentally checked out ahead of kick-off, making their job just that much easier.

Ryanair playing 'Follow Follow' for the Rangers fans landing in Porto! 😁👏 pic.twitter.com/FHl5yerF6Z

— Rangers FC & Linfield FC (@bluesbrothers86) January 29, 2026

They will also have extra motivation to secure a spot in the final 16 after their rival

The Chasers

Aside from Porto, 10 other sides have a chance of making the last 16, with all of them guaranteeing at least a play-off spot thanks to 25th-placed Ludogorets’ low points tally of 7th.

Of these 10 sides, Genk and Bologna have the easiest fixtures, as they take on two already eliminated sides in Malmö FF and Maccabi Tel Aviv, respectively, both of whom have mustered a measly single point.

A win for Genk could catapult them as high as fourth, but results amongst the top eight would also need to go their way, while Bologna need six sides above them to drop points in order to join Lyon and Villa.

Genk's 18-year-old star ⭐️#UEL | @KRCGenkofficial pic.twitter.com/UO6jilyFYo

— UEFA Europa League (@EuropaLeague) January 29, 2026

Conversely, Nottingham Forest and FK Crvena Zvezda face the stiffest challenges if they are to bypass the extra risk of a play-off round. The English side face Ferencváros, who themselves are playing for an automatic spot in the last 16, while the Serbian outfit must face fellow chasers Celta Vigo, who, objectively speaking, have the stronger squad.

Elsewhere, PAOK will hope to take advantage of already qualified Lyon; Stuttgart take on 23rd-place Young Boys; Viktoria Plzen face play-off chasing Basel; and Fenerbahce take on Steaua Bucharest, who are also in the hunt for the preliminary knockout round.

Play-off Panic

So, having broken down what everyone needs if they are to give themselves a chance of the last 16 football, let's now turn our attention to those looking to prolong their stay in the competition.

Five sides currently in the play-off spots, in the form of Dinamo Zagreb, Lille, Brann, Young Boys and Celtic, could miss out entirely if they slip up, rendering their final day fixtures as absolute must-wins.

Zagreb face a high-flying Midtjylland side with last 16 ambitions, so the Croatian outfit will have their work cut out for them despite home advantage, while surprise strugglers Lille face a similar problem with in-form Freiburg in their way.

Despite sitting fifth in Ligue 1 and reaching the round of 16 in the Champions League last season, Lille are winless in their last five, conceding 13 in the process - labelled as one of the favourites to win the whole league phase prior to the first ball being kicked, Lille will now be hard-pressed to stay in the competition at all.

Below them, Brann are faced with a significantly easier task as they face long-gone Sturm Graz, while, as previously mentioned, Young Boys take on top-eight hopefuls Stuttgart.

However, the crunch fixture at the bottom of the table is without doubt Celtic vs Utrecht. The Scottish side has had a turbulent campaign, which has already seen three different managers come and go, including Martin O’Neill’s recent return in the wake of Wilfried Nancy’s humiliating departure.

https://t.co/NDTFduqwZF

— Celtic Football Club (@CelticFC) January 29, 2026

The Bhoys occupy the final play-off spot and sit just a point ahead of Ludogorets - though Utrecht have mustered just one point this campaign, they are still playing for Dutch pride and would love to bow out of the tournament with a win under their belts.

Since O’Neill’s return, Celtic’s form has improved - they are undefeated in five and have won three of them – but this game represents by far their most important since the Irishman returned to the dugout.

Last Chance Saloon

Outside of the play-off spots, there are still six sides who can make a late surge into the knockout round, and aside from Ludogorets, they all lie two points behind Celtic, meaning that for each and every one of them, a win is of paramount importance.

Ludogorets play a Nice side who saw their elimination made official in matchday six, and with nothing on the line to play for, the French side will likely rotate, providing the Bulgarian outfit to grasp those vital three points.

As we have seen, Feyenoord and Basel both play sides with their own agendas, with Feyenoord taking on eighth-placed Real Betis and Basel facing a well-placed Viktoria Plzen.

RB Salzburg have the curious task of taking on an already-qualified Aston Villa. With the top four in the Premier League very much on the agenda, Unai Emery is likely to rotate his side here in a bid to preserve some fresh legs for their weekend clash with Brentford.

🚨🚨| Aston Villa have an astonishing 69% chance of winning against RB Salzburg in the Europa League tonight. 🤯

[@PolymarketSport] pic.twitter.com/wEaQKOKROC

— CentreGoals. (@centregoals) January 29, 2026

As such, the Austrian side has a better chance than many would give credit for of qualifying for the next stage. It will still take a mammoth performance – Villa have some serious strength in depth – but Salzburg have plenty of talent of their own and pose more than a viable threat.

The final two sides who could feasibly qualify for the knockouts are the 30th and 31st, Steaua Bucharest and Go Ahead Eagles.

Steaua are tasked with toppling a top-eight hopeful in Fenerbahçe, while Go Ahead Eagles host fifth-placed Braga, a stern test for any side, let alone a club that has gone winless since early November, a streak of 12 games without maximum points.

For Rangers, Sturm Graz, Nice, Utrecht, Malmo and Maccabi Tel Aviv, it is too late. After a string of poor performances in the early stages of the competition, they simply haven’t left enough wiggle room to give them a chance of qualification. A shame, as football would have loved to see raucous Rangers, Sturm Graz scenes, and Malmo mayhem in the knockouts.

Let's do this 👊#UEL pic.twitter.com/s88JCrzxoU

— UEFA Europa League (@EuropaLeague) January 29, 2026

So, those are the storylines you need to look out for in the Europa League tonight. With countless possible permutations, potential shocks and last-minute position changes, it promises to be a box office night at the European races, and whether you have a horse in the race or are simply watching as a neutral fan, you won’t want to miss it.