Why Hibernian’s Season Unravelled Long Before the Scottish Cup Exit

Blue Monday and the blues well and truly cast a shadow over the good ship Hibernian at the weekend.

Dunfermline Athletic’s 1–0 victory at East End Park knocked the Leith side out of the Scottish Cup and, in truth, effectively ended their season in January.

Yet the defeat itself was not the story.

It was merely the latest expression of issues that have been visible for months, missed opportunity, fragile game management and a lack of clarity in how this team is meant to function.

To understand where Hibernian are now, the analysis must stretch beyond a single result and examine how this season has slowly unravelled.

A season of missed opportunity

The warning signs were present from the very beginning. Against FC Midtjylland at Easter Road, Hibernian struggled to move the ball with conviction or defend with sufficient determination late in the second leg.

While the goal that forced extra time was a thunderous strike, the period of play leading up to it told a different story. Control was surrendered, pressure invited and an opportunity to close out the tie was allowed to slip.

European football still beckoned.

A 2–0 victory in Belgrade put Hibs in a commanding position, yet the return leg was made unnecessarily uncomfortable by a curious team selection and altered shape.

Scraping through should have served as a warning shot. Instead, the same approach was deployed against Legia Warsaw Easter Road, with predictably poor results.

Ironically, the second half in Warsaw showcased what this group is capable of. Quality, bravery and individual initiative dragged the players and the club to within minutes of the Conference League group stages.

It was a performance driven by momentum rather than control and it almost carried them through.

Then came the intervention from the sidelines.

At the worst possible moment, a substitution disrupted rhythm and cohesion.

A player barely used throughout Gray’s tenure was introduced ahead of more experienced, enterprising options, altering the balance of the side.

Momentum was lost, control evaporated and Hibernian exited in extra time. That moment proved pivotal, not just in Europe but in shaping how confidence in decision-making would erode over the months that followed.

A month later, Hibs travelled to face a beleaguered Rangers FC side in the League Cup.

By that point, several teams had already shown how Russell Martin’s Rangers could be tested pressing high, forcing errors in build-up and showing bravery in possession. Hibernian did none of it.

Passive out of possession and blunt in attack, they failed to lay a glove on a vulnerable opponent.

It felt less like caution and more like uncertainty, reinforcing a growing concern that the team lacked both a clear plan and the flexibility to impose itself in big moments.

Weeks later, the Edinburgh derby offered no respite. At Tynecastle, Hibs were ineffective and disconnected, barely affecting the game in the attacking third. Martin Boyle’s missed sitter was costly but it masked a broader issue progression through midfield was limited, attacking patterns were predictable and sustained pressure was absent.

The Christmas derby at Easter Road briefly suggested progress. Racing into a 3–0 lead against Heart of Midlothian, Hibs looked dominant.

Yet even here, game management again proved fragile. The introduction of Joe Newell altered the midfield balance, weakened the press and allowed Hearts a route back into the contest. What should have been controlled became chaotic.

That result bought time and credit. But in football, credit is finite.

In Fife on Sunday, starting Newell while omitting profiles that had offered greater balance, energy and penetration felt less like a correction and more like repetition.

Dropping players such as Barlaser and Youan raised further questions about clarity of roles and identity. The selection was not simply about form, it reflected uncertainty about what this team is meant to be.

Recruitment without identity

Since Malky Mackay took up the sporting director role, recruitment has not been without positives. Hibernian have signed athletic, physically capable players and invested heavily, including a record fee for Thibault Klidje last summer. The intent to back the football department has been clear.

However, recruitment without an alternative game models quickly loses impact. Many of the current squad share similar physical profiles, strong, athletic, capable of covering ground yet lack complementary variation. Similarity has bred predictability.

The case of Alassana Manneh is instructive. His ball-carrying ability, passing range and technical security are not naturally suited to a system that bypasses midfield quickly or prioritises direct play.

Whether this is a recruitment error, a tactical mismatch, or both, it underlines a lack of alignment between acquisition and utilisation.

Forwards such as Kieron Bowie have also suffered. When pre-scripted wide patterns are cut off, Hibs default to long balls and percentages.

Bowie, a striker who thrives on varied service, movement and combination play, has too often been starved of opportunities in feet or in behind. Tactical rigidity has limited individual strengths rather than enhanced them.

Off the pitch, the numbers add further context. Hibernian posted a £7.2 million loss in the most recent financial year, the largest in the club’s history. While revenues increased significantly, costs rose faster, particularly wages and operating expenses.

The Gordon family have repeatedly covered these losses, underlining both their commitment and the unsustainability of the current model. Their love for the club is not in doubt but stewardship has not been without problems.

The failed partnership with the Black Knight Group, which resulted in the Gordons buying back a minority stake at significant cost, further highlights strategic misalignment at ownership level.

For a club already running at a loss, absorbing additional financial burden only sharpens the need for clarity and coherence elsewhere.

Investment has been made. Managers have been backed. But without a defined footballing identity and a consistent operational strategy, spending becomes risk rather than leverage.

This season’s failures cannot be pinned on a single moment, match or individual.

They are the result of patterns tactical stasis, recruitment misalignment and fragile in-game management.

Where Hibernian have struggled this season is cohesion.

It’s one thing to possess talent, athleticism and individual quality but quite another to marry those into a collective identity.

And without impactful early goals in games, opponents quickly close channels and remove Hibs from any meaningful rhythm.

A team’s tactical identity is its blueprint in moments of challenge in transition, under press or when possession advantage evaporates.

The current setup appears to have limited contingency strategies, which becomes most obvious in matches where the expected pattern of play is disrupted often leading to structural breakdown rather than adaptation.

The board has backed the football department financially. Recruitment has delivered capable players. But without a clear, adaptable game model, those investments lose value.

Players are asked to solve problems structurally rather than collectively and similarity of profile limits tactical solutions.

The defining issue is alignment: • Does recruitment serve the system? • Does the system serve the players? • Do in-game decisions consistently improve the team’s chances of winning?

Too often this season, the answer has been no.

What Next? Structural Reset or Simply Short-Term Fixes?

Hibernian sit in a fascinating and difficult position.

They have the history, supporters, infrastructure and competitive aspirations befitting a club of stature in Scottish football.

But those assets have not yet translated into a consistent identity or sustainable model.

To move forward, questions must be asked not just of managerial tactics or individual performances but of how the club defines success, how it builds structures that support performance and whether there is alignment between boardroom, sporting leadership and coaching philosophy.

Right now, there appears to be a dissonance: • recruitment without clear tactical mould, • financial losses without a return mechanism, • playing identity that lacks flexibility.

And if the club want to see tangible growth, both on the pitch and in their financial health, these are the areas that need answering.

Hibernian’s Scottish Cup exit was not an isolated failure. It was a symptom.

It exposed a team lacking cohesion, a tactical approach that struggles to adapt and a club caught between ambition and reality.

The financial losses underline that nothing exists in isolation football decisions, recruitment strategy and ownership vision are all interconnected.

If Hibs are to avoid repeating this cycle, the next phase must be defined by clarity rather than reaction. Clear identity. Clear alignment. Clear accountability.

Without that, more Blue Mondays will follow and none of them will be about just one game.