
It's hard to find any fixture that topples The Madrid Derby nowadays, and the two European giants clash again in the Super Cup semi-final tomorrow evening. If you had any plans in mind, make sure to cancel them because this game is a MUST WATCH. Since we're being treated to high- stakes action, it is only right that we put something at stake ourselves.
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Both Teams To Score
Over 8.5 Corners
Julián Álvarez to Score Anytime
Over 2.5 Goals
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Atlético Madrid to Win
Gonzalo García to Score Anytime
Jude Bellingham to be Booked
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BTTS Banker: It is not often you can be so certain that both teams will get on the scoresheet , but the evidence is pretty strong for this to be the case here. 11 of the last 12 meetings between the two sides have seen goals at both ends, and the last meeting ended in a thrilling 5-2 victory for Atleti.
Los Blancos have the most clean sheets in La Liga this season, with eight, closely followed by Simeone's side with seven. Yet, as the record books have shown, it appears that any sign of defensive know-how goes out the window when these two meet, and the current scoring form of both suggests this will be no different. It is worth mentioning that this is a repeat of the 2024 Super Cup Semi-Final, which resulted in a 5-3 victory for Real Madrid, so you can see the trend that is going on here.
Goals in Abundance: On the topic of goals, perhaps I have been far too safe with an Over 2.5 shout. Atleti have scored 12 in their last five matches, whilst Real Madrid managed one better with 13. As the head-to-head record shows, a frequent result in this fixture tends to be a 1-1 draw. That being said, the nature of this matchup is likely to bring out the best in both sides and the quality of the attackers , in particular.
The Álvarez Show: A predicted goalscorer in a value bet? You may think I'm crazy, but Álvarez absolutely loves playing Real Madrid based on his track record against this opponent. The Argentinian has scored four goals in his last four Madrid Derbies , including a brace in the league this season. He has proved his worth as a world-class striker since joining from Manchester City last season and has already tallied 11 goals for the campaign in all competitions. Álvarez will be raring to go in the hopes of claiming his first trophy with the Spanish side.
Continuous Corners: The trusty corner bet is always the one that gives you the most apprehension when watching a game. I wouldn't fear too much about putting one on here, as there is strong evidence to suggest that Over 8.5 Corners is a safe bet. There have been no fewer than nine corners in each of the last three meetings between the two, with the second leg of the thrilling Champions League tie totaling 20 corners last season.
Atlético Madrid to Win: There, I said it. The emphatic nature of Atleti 's victory last time out, combined with the growing speculation and criticism of the Real Madrid squad, is enough for me to side with a win for Simeone. Perhaps the absence of Kylian Mbappé fueled greater confidence in this selection, as the Frenchman takes " scoring when he wants " to another level. The likes of Álvarez and Alexander Sørloth have proved their worth in front of goal this season, whilst the evergreen Antoine Griezmann has scored four goals in his last four matches. A win here would see Atlético Madrid reach the final stage for the first time since 2020, where they were defeated on penalties by their fellow Madridistas.
Golazo García : Where there is good reason to expect goals, there is greater reason to expect scoring from both sides. Los Blancos academy product Gonzalo García has huge shoes to fill, given Mbappé 's absence, so I guess scoring a perfect hat-trick against Real Betis isn't the worst way to go about things. The 21-year-old showed his quality in pre-season displays but has had limited opportunity to showcase this in competitive matches. Marking just his second league start with a hat-trick is a clear statement of intent, and there is no doubt that the Spanish striker will be full of confidence coming into this fixture.
Belli-Oh: The Englishman plays with his heart on his sleeve and has a tendency of making his way into the referee's book. Whilst Bellingham has recieved just the one caution in LaLiga this season, the dark arts of Simeone and co justifies confidence in tempers flaring if the roll of the ball is not going the way of Los Blancos. It is a longshot bet after all and we are siding with a Bellingham booking to complete our selections.
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Odds from BOYLESports, correct as of 14:48, 07/01/2026. Sports betting, even with advice, is always a risk to your capital that should be enjoyed responsibly. Set a stop-loss, never chase any losses, and never stake what you cannot afford to lose.
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