Who is most likely to win the 2024/25 edition of the UEFA Nations League

Germany, Portugal, Spain and France all booked their places in June’s Nations League Finals during this international break. The mini-tournament spanning over four days from June 4th to 8th will take place in Munich and Stuttgart and will determine the winner of the fourth-ever UEFA Nations League. The three previous winners are all still in the running to claim a second title, with Germany looking to win it for the first time on home soil. After 180 matches, 480 goals and over 4 million in attendance, the only question left is, who will win the 2024/25 edition?

The UEFA Nations League semi-finals are locked-in 🔐🏆 pic.twitter.com/G0fnUyUYMa

— OneFootball (@OneFootball) March 23, 2025

Germany?

Germany were the only team to qualify without needing extra time in the quarter-finals, dismissing Italy 5-4 on aggregate, although Julian Nagelsmann’s side did blow a three-goal lead in the second leg with the game finishing 3-3. Die Mannschaft also breezed through the group stage, winning four, drawing two, and not losing a single game. Germany averaged three goals a game, putting five past Hungary and seven past Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Autumn 2024.

When Tim Kleindienst lined up in the second tier of Germany two years ago, he would’ve never expected to be Germany’s senior international striker 18 months later. The 29-year-old has had a brilliant season at Borussia Mönchengladbach, scoring 15 goals in the Bundesliga, and has also repaid Nagelsmann for selecting him for Germany. Kleindienst has four goals and one assist in 407 minutes for his nation since his first call-up in October, which includes two goals and an assist to send his team through against Italy. The veteran will be looking to continue this excellent form for the rest of the season and into the finals in June.

🇩🇪🤩⚽️ Tim #Kleindienst 🆚🇮🇹#NationsLeague | #ITAGER | @DFB_Team | @DFB_Team_EN pic.twitter.com/e4Uv0stKqc

— UEFA Nations League DE (@EURO2024DE) March 22, 2025

This is Germany’s first time advancing past the group stage, after failing to top their group on the previous three attempts. After missing out on the European Championship last summer, Deutschland will be gunning for revenge. A Portuguese side that conceded three against Denmark is all that stands between them and the final. If they reach the last game in Munich, Germany will fancy themselves.

Portugal?

Portugal advanced to the finals in dramatic fashion, losing the first leg of the quarters to Denmark, an 86th-minute Trincao goal was needed to send the second leg to extra time, where a further two goals meant that the scoreline was 5-2 come the end of the 120. In a similar style to Germany, Portugal topped their group with 14 points, four wins, and two draws. They conceded just five goals, but notably only kept one clean sheet.

As each year passes, Cristiano Ronaldo continues to score for Portugal despite questions of how long he will last in the international game. The legendary forward has been a key player in all of his country's Nations League games once again and is the top scorer in the entire competition with six goals. Whilst he continues to play for the Seleção, there’s always a chance that they can succeed in any competition.

🏆 #OTD in 2019: Portugal became the first winners of the UEFA #NationsLeague! pic.twitter.com/tc9JcmasdX

— UEFA (@UEFA) June 9, 2020

Portugal won the inaugural 2018/19 Nations League, beating the Netherlands in the final. Since then, they have not appeared in the finals, often being drafted into tough groups. On paper, they have one of the strongest squads on the continent, making their face-off with Germany an epic battle to come.

Spain?

Spain are the defending champions of the Nations League and European Championship, and also the only team from the previous final four to return. After what was an almost perfect group stage, La Roja looked a lot more fragile against the Netherlands, needing penalties to advance after a 5-5 aggregate scoreline. The only team to reach 16 points in the group stage, Espana surpassed Denmark twice as well as Serbia and Switzerland.

Luis de la Fuente’s side had 15 different goal scorers in the Nations League so far, with only two having more than one goal. An extremely talented squad across the board, Mikel Oyarzabal has grown to be a standout player for his national team in the last 12 months. The forward scored the opener against Denmark back in November before his brace last week against the Netherlands, two vital goals. This is without forgetting that Oyarzabal scored the winner in the European Championship Final last summer; he has a taste for big game moments, so he will thrive in June against France.

NICO WILLIAMS TO OYARZABAL TO GIVE SPAIN THE LEAD OVER THE NETHERLANDS!!!

HIS SECOND GOAL OF THE NIGHT! WHAT A MOMENT! 🔥 pic.twitter.com/9j42ya94bH

— ESPN FC (@ESPNFC) March 23, 2025

France?

France are another that required penalties to advance to the finals. After losing the first leg to Croatia, Les Bleus came back on home turf and managed to overcome a testing shootout. Their group was not simple either, the only team that required goal difference to top the table, France, had to deal with Italy and Belgium. In the end, they finished with four wins, one draw and one loss, making them the only team in the final four to have lost a group stage game.

PSG’s forward duo of Bradley Barcola and Ousmane Dembele have two goals each in the Nations League, including an 80th-minute Dembele goal that sent the Croatia Quarter-Final to extra time. The pair have 66 goal contributions combined for PSG this season, iif they are fit and in form for June they will give Spain plenty of problems.

Ousmane Dembélé, Désiré Doué, Bradley Barcola and Warren Zaïre-Emery ❤️💙#FRACRO pic.twitter.com/fmdugW3O81

— Paris Saint-Germain (@PSG_English) March 23, 2025

France and Spain’s Semi-Final game will be a rematch of the 2020/21 Final, which France won. The French failed to reach the final four in 2018/19 and 2022/23, having a disappointing season as defending champions in particular. Can they bounce back in June?

Verdict

It is no coincidence that the final four are arguably the four strongest nations in Europe right now. Football Park predicts that Germany will reach the final on home turf, with Spain also beating France due to their impressive group stage form and recent success in international tournaments.

France should beat Portugal to finish third, as Roberto Martinez’s Portuguese side has often failed to live up to expectations. As for the final, it is extremely hard to call, but home support and a desire to claim a first-ever Nations League trophy might push Germany over the edge to victory.