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What can be expected heading into the MLS Conference Semi-finals?
Blogs

What can be expected heading into the MLS Conference Semi-finals?

21/11/24 18:13

The Major League Soccer season is finally into its final few weeks of fixtures, and with eight teams left, the playoffs will resume this weekend after the international break. The unpredictable nature of the postseason so far makes all of the conference semi-finals hard to read, but factors in each fixture may influence any of the eight teams.

New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls - 22:30 (GMT) Saturday 23rd November

Starting with the biggest matchup of the round, the Hudson River Derby has now been contested for 10 seasons after NYCFC’s inaugural 2015 campaign. The two teams that are located on either side of the river that divides New York City have faced off 29 times overall with the Red Bulls currently leading the tie (15 wins) over NYCFC (10 wins) in all competitions (4 draws have also commenced).

This will be the first time the derby has taken place inside the play-offs, meaning it will be more dramatic than ever. Although the two meetings that have taken place already in 2024 will suggest that the fixture will not be as close as expected, with City winning both matches in the regular season by an aggregate score of 7-2. The two NYC teams were much closer in the final regular season table, with City again coming out on top and finishing in 6th place in the Eastern Conference with the Red Bulls just three points behind in 7th.

On the pitch, both sides had relatively mediocre seasons and even finished with the same goal difference (with RB scoring and conceding a goal more), but off the pitch, this tie will mean even more to both sets of fans than meets the eye. Despite being around for almost 20 years longer, the Red Bulls (founded as the MetroStars until 2006) are somehow still yet to win an MLS Cup. Something that their sky blue rivals can boast after bringing the MLS Cup to New York City for the first time in 2021. That being said, the Red Bulls have claimed the Supporters' Shield on three occasions compared to City’s two. All five of those Supporters’ Shield titles came between the years of 2013 and 2019. A period of NYC dominance that was not capitalised on, as the MLS Cup was not claimed by either side on any of those five occasions.

Names to look out for in this fixture include Emil Forsberg, one of the highest-paid Designated Players in the league after signing for the Red Bulls at the beginning of the season. After battling through injury the Swede racked up 14 goal involvements in 21 MLS regular/post season games including a goal in their last playoff victory against Columbus. Other Red Bull names to keep track of are 2024 top scorer Lewis Morgan and Young Player of the Year nominee, Noah Eile.

As for NYCFC, goalkeeper Matt Freese has had an excellent breakthrough year after being nominated for Goalkeeper of the Year, multiple mentions for a possible USA national team call up and displaying his heroics by saving three penalties last time out against Cincinnati. Costa Rican international Alonso Martinez has also had his best-ever goalscoring campaign after coach Nick Cushing began playing him as a striker instead of a winger (18 goals in all competitions).

LAFC vs Seattle Sounders - 03:30 (GMT) Sunday 24th November

This West Coast clash is not unfamiliar in the playoffs with the clubs already meeting in the postseason three times since LAFC’s inaugural campaign in 2018. Two of the more successful clubs in the last decade, the Sounders have picked up the MLS Cup twice in 2016 and 2019, LAFC won their first MLS Cup in 2022.

The teams have met 20 times with LAFC the overwhelming winner (11 wins to Seattle’s 6) including twice in 2024 where LA triumphed on both occasions. The Los Angeles-based side also topped the Western Conference, beating their city rivals LA Galaxy to the top by a singular goal deficit. The playoffs however have not gone as smoothly after LAFC scraped past Pacific Northwest rivals, Vancouver in the first round after losing 3-0 to the Canadian side in the second of three fixtures.

Despite only playing in the MLS since 2009, the Seattle Sounders' name dates back to the 70s. The club had one of the longest playoff appearances runs, qualifying for the postseason every year between their inaugural season and 2022. After the anomaly of finishing 11th in the 2022 season, the Sounders now seem back on track but it’s safe to say that many expansion teams such as LAFC have taken the spotlight away from Seattle in recent years. With little expectation and a tie with the now-favourites to go all the way, an MLS Cup win would be a surprise but also exactly what the Sounders’ fans need right now.

As the champions of the Western Conference, all eyes are on LAFC after Eastern Champions Miami were knocked out. The potential of an ‘El Trafico’ rivalry match against the Galaxy in the next round is a great incentive, it also cannot be ignored that LAFC were runners up in the MLS Cup last year, so fans will be after the taste of glory that they got in 2022 even more so after coming so close a year ago.

Seattle will be tough to break down with Defender of the Year nominee, Yeimar at the back. Academy product and club legend, Jordan Morris will also look to add to the goals after his best goalscoring season yet. As for LAFC expectations will be high once again for Denis Bouanga after a second season in a row of scoring 20 regular season goals, the Gabonese international is gradually getting closer to Carlos Vela’s record as the record goalscorer for LAFC (69 goals in three seasons, all competitions).

Orlando City vs Atlanta United - 20:30 (GMT) Sunday 24th November

Giant killers Atlanta United return to the neighbouring state of Florida once again, this time to the northern city of Orlando. Whilst Orlando (4th) may have finished above Atlanta (9th) in the final Eastern Conference standings, the side from Georgia beat Orlando in both meetings in 2024. Their head-to-head also falls heavily in Atlanta’s favour with 11 wins to Orlando’s four. However, this will be the first time the sides have met in the playoffs.

Orlando have never made it further than this stage, after failing to reach the playoffs in the club’s first five attempts and never managing to reach the Conference Finals since. This makes Orlando one of the less decorated clubs remaining, being the only side along with Minnesota United to have never won an MLS Cup or Supporters’ Shield. On paper, the chances of making the last four couldn’t be better facing off against the lowest-ranked side left, and a chance to win their first MLS Cup would give fans a well-earned shot at success after being overshadowed in the media in recent years by their Florida counterparts, Inter Miami.

Atlanta, like Seattle, have faced a rude awakening since the beginning of the 2020s. After two seasons competing (and winning) at the top, in the last four campaigns the club have failed to qualify for the playoffs twice and been round one knockouts twice. It was looking like another disappointing season until decision day when they clinched the final playoff spot despite it being out of their hands. The events following continued to indicate that this is a team that is peaking at the right moment, defeating Montreal and then Supporters’ Shield winners Inter Miami, one of the most memorable nights in MLS history. Now with confidence and resilience in the side, fans can only dream that they can pull off the impossible and become the side with the lowest regular season points per game to lift the MLS Cup.

It’s a tale of designated players for Orlando as two of the players most likely to make an impact are DPs, Facundo Torres and Martin Ojeda. The South American pair have been integral to one of the Lions’ highest finishes. The same cannot be said for Orlando’s third and final DP though, a lot of excitement surrounded Luis Muriel’s arrival in Florida but the striker famed for his time in Italy and Spain has scored just five goals in 36 MLS regular/post season games, a low figure for someone on almost five million dollars a year. As for Atlanta, keeper Brad Guzan was labelled as one of the key reasons why the Five Stripes managed to overcome Inter Miami. If he plays anything like he did last time out Atlanta are bound to reach the Conference Finals.

LA Galaxy vs Minnesota United - 23:00 (GMT) Sunday 24th November

The final fixture of the round is a real juxtaposition of the experienced against the inexperienced. LA Galaxy who have a record five MLS Cups and four Supporters’ Shields are up against a Minnesota side who are making their fifth ever playoff appearance, with this season being their second time advancing past the first round. Both fixtures between the two were relatively close in 2024, the first being a 2-2 draw and the second a 2-1 win due to a 90th minute Gabriel Pec winner for the Galaxy. The teams have met just 16 times, with the Galaxy the overwhelming victors with eight wins to Minnesota’s three.

Despite their history of success, LA Galaxy haven’t actually won anything for a decade and have been one of the lowest-performing teams in recent years. A telling sign that the LA team have not been able to keep up with the new expansion teams. In fact, the Galaxy have not advanced past this point since 2014 and have failed to qualify for the playoffs in five of the last seven attempts before this year.

This might just be the year Galaxy’s fortunes change though, finishing second for the first time in the Western Conference since 2014 (yes, the year they last won the MLS Cup) and joint on points with top team LAFC. They also face a favoured tie with a squad that no longer needs big names to carry their performances. After such a dramatic falloff and their city rivals enjoying plenty of success in recent years, Galaxy fans are finally crying out for some success.

Hailing from the Twin Cities of Minnesota, the Loons have had a relatively quiet history with no titles or honours meaning a shock victory this weekend would be a day for the history books. Minnesota finished 6th in the Western Conference and scraped past Real Salt Lake by winning on penalties twice. With just one goal in the playoffs so far and just one player reaching double figures in goals over the course of the season.

Without a striking talisman for most of the season, the answer to Minnesota’s problems could be Italian youth international Kelvin Yeboah, who was brought in midway through the season and has since scored seven goals in nine appearances. South African international Bongokuhle Hlongwane has also continued to supply goals from the wing (17 goals in 2023, 11 in 2024) as well as Finnish midfielder Robin Lod who has 13 assists. The same cannot be said about fellow Finnish striker Teemu Pukki who unfortunately has managed just four goals this year.

Whilst Minnesota’s players were absent from the end of season award nominees, LA Galaxy have an MVP nominee in Riqui Puig, the confirmed newcomer of the year Gabriel Pec and Greg Vanney, Galaxy’s Manager of the Year nominated coach. Galaxy have found a way to split their goals between multiple players including Pec (19 goals in all competitions), Puig (17 goals in all competitions including four in playoffs so far), Joseph Paintsil (12 goals in all competitions) and Dejan Joveljic (17 goals in all competitions). Combined with an experienced Maya Yoshida in defence and the famed Marco Reus off the bench. There’s a reason why the Galaxy breezed past Colorado in the previous round with an aggregate score of 9-1 and currently look like the team to beat.

Benji Kosartiyer
Journalist
James McLeish

Writer

Major League Soccer
15/09/24 23:15
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